Humankind set for more giant leaps in space in 2025
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Our new year, 2025, is shaping up to be a watershed year for space and space policy. With the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president on Jan. 20, two of the most pro-space advocates that America has probably ever known will come to prominence in the new administration. One is Elon Musk, a titan of space exploration with the brains, vision and means to propel space policy to new heights. And the other is Jared Isaacman, Trump’s nominee to be NASA administrator, an astronaut and a trailblazer who made history as the first person to go to space and to walk in space on a private mission.
But space is not only for the US. The world discovered space in 2024, making it a historic year, although America created the lion’s share of that history.
From China to Japan, India and many other countries, people wanted to fly to the moon and be in space, believing what British astronomer Fred Hoyle once said, that “space isn’t remote at all. It’s only an hour’s drive away if your car could go straight upwards.” All these countries contributed to making 2024 a historic year, with space now closer than ever and cheaper to explore and visit.
There is no picture that stirs the imagination and foretells the future of space better than SpaceX’s capture of the rocket booster of its giant Starship by the “chopstick” arms of the launch tower. This broke new ground for SpaceX’s Starship and, as the company’s manager of quality systems engineering Kate Tice put it, it was a day “for the engineering history books,” as well as for the future of space launches and their cost.
Last year was also a turning point because it witnessed the entry of the private sector into space, replacing governments and raising expectations and ambitions about a new space economy that is expected to quadruple in less than a decade.
Last year was also a turning point because it witnessed the entry of the private sector into space
Dr. Amal Mudallali
The first private sector spacecraft to land on the moon was Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus lander last February, making it the first American landing on the moon since the Apollo missions of the 1970s. It was carrying a payload for NASA and what was referred to as commercial and cultural cargo, including a chip containing the works of Pablo Picasso, Michaelangelo, Jeff Koons’ sculpture “Moon Phases” and others. It also carried undisclosed payloads from commercial companies and educational institutions — a controversial issue for some space law purists, who require transparency in what humans take to the moon.
Japan also landed on the moon in 2024, but upside down. Its Moon Sniper touched down in January, making Japan the fifth nation to reach this historic milestone. Although the landing was not perfect and the solar panels were not directed toward the sun, the lander was able to send images back to Earth, making its mission a success.
China’s Chang’e-6 probe landed successfully on the far side of the moon in 2024 — a historic first for the main space competitor to the US. The Chinese achievement included bringing samples from the lunar surface back to Earth, another first for humans.
The first private sector spacewalk took place in 2024, when Isaacman and the Polaris Dawn crew flew to space and made history.
And in December, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe made history by flying just 6.1 million km from the surface of the sun. Unlike Icarus of Greek mythology, who flew too close to the sun and saw his wings melt, the Parker Solar Probe survived the sun’s wrath and “phoned home” to Earth and provided details of its mission.
Hundreds of payloads and satellites were launched into space in 2024, supplying the International Space Station and making communications better on Earth, but also adding to congestion and increasing the danger of space debris. SpaceX alone flew 138 missions in 2024 through its Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Starship launches (compare this to the NASA Space Shuttle fleet that flew 135 times in 30 years). Space has become so crowded that space debris now presents a real danger to satellites and spaceships, as well as humans on Earth. Last week, an object weighing half a tonne, believed to be a piece of space junk resulting from a rocket launch, fell onto a village in Kenya. Unfortunately, this will become more common if nothing is done to enforce rules and norms on space debris, security and sustainability.
This year will be even more exciting for the space sector, but also concerning for regulators and experts
Dr. Amal Mudallali
This new year will be even more exciting for the space sector, but also concerning for regulators and space policy experts. More moon trips and landings are planned by many countries in 2025, with hundreds of launches planned.
NASA’s Artemis program astronauts are planning to fly around the moon without landing this year, while a series of moon missions are planned by American companies FireFly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines (which will launch its second lander, Athena) and Japan’s Ispace will launch its second attempt to land on the moon. SpaceX’s first launch of the year on Friday saw it send the Thuraya-4 mobile connectivity satellite into space for UAE company Space42.
Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin might become the story of 2025, with his possible challenge to Musk thanks to the planned launch of his New Glenn rocket, whose booster, like SpaceX’s Falcon 9, is reusable. Starlink will also have competition from Bezos’ Project Kuiper, which aims to provide internet access from space via its constellation of satellites.
SpaceX is reportedly aiming for 25 launches of its Starship in 2025 and India is targeting 10 launches, while China plans to focus on asteroids, launch rockets and the continuation of its lunar exploration programs. The moon and the space economy will be the real story of 2025.
But we know from Musk that he has his eyes on Mars, with a nod from President-elect Trump, and not the moon, even if he fulfills his contract with NASA to fly their astronauts there.
The question on everyone’s mind here is what changes will there be to US space policy under the new administration? The answer is simple: whatever Elon Musk wants. While this is exciting for many, not everyone is jumping for joy here or around the world or is seeing eye to eye with Musk on how to handle space.
- Dr. Amal Mudallali is an international affairs adviser for Think and a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.