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It would not be an exaggeration to say that Germans in 2025 are stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea, as their country starts the new year with an increasingly heated election campaign that is attracting clear attempts to influence its voters from two opposing forces for two diametrically opposed reasons. But both are likely to pose an existential threat for German democracy not seen since the rise to power of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s.

The general election due to be held on Feb. 23 came about after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unruly three-party coalition, as it was unable to agree a solution for the country’s ailing industries.

But this election will be held amid an extremely polarized German landscape due to targeted social media campaigns orchestrated by foes, as well as friends. All that while war still rages not far from Germany, as Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine unabated, despite all the Western help afforded to Kyiv. This, no doubt, will be compounded by the arrival of the new president in the White House.

Fears of foreign interference in politics in general is nothing new in Europe’s biggest economy, but this time it looks like Germany will suffer a pincer movement from East and West, with both sides seeking to destabilize its democracy in favor of populist and far-right politics.

And Germany is not alone among Western nations in terms of being flipped by various means toward hard-right politics. If left unchecked, this shift is likely to change the values and ethos that have governed the Western world by the end of this decade. The Russian meddling is not new, but its intensity is starting to be felt, as a current of anti-establishment sentiment is starting to take root. This is also driven by populists in America, who are magnifying the anti-migrant, “anti-other” sentiment, especially in the formerly Soviet-controlled parts of Eastern Germany.

This election will be held amid an extremely polarized German landscape due to targeted social media campaigns

Mohamed Chebaro

For some time, German intelligence chiefs have been raising the alarm about reported Russian attempts to erode public trust in the country’s leadership and institutions and weaken Germany’s resolve to stand by Ukraine. This has no doubt been a force that helped the rise of the hard-right Alternative for Germany, which has enjoyed electoral success in the eastern provinces of Germany. The Russian influence campaign has been composed of both covert and deniable overt acts aimed at sowing discontent through hybrid communications and direct action, while looking like acts of insecurity that magnify the failure of the German authorities on issues related to integration, migration and the economy.

Germany’s domestic intelligence services have often pointed to Russia or Russia-aligned entities as being active in spreading disinformation online and launching cyberattacks aimed at weakening public confidence in democracy, as well as undermining public support for NATO and the EU. Both these issues feature as priorities on the agenda of the Alternative for Germany.

But what is believed to be keeping German politicians and the security establishment awake at night is the influence campaign led by Elon Musk, the owner of X and an influential and outspoken adviser to the incoming US president. He has been using his social media platform to magnify the Alternative for Germany’s political messaging, an act not denied by the party. This has led the German chancellor to hit back, reminding voters that “You, the citizens, decide what happens next in Germany. The owners of social media do not decide that.” Scholz’s party’s co-leader even went on the record accusing Musk of “trying the same thing as Vladimir Putin,” in wanting Germany “to be weakened and pushed into chaos.”

Germans need to wake up. Anything short of policing the internet and the assiduous communication campaigns to their smallest details is unlikely to fend off the historic blow that awaits German democracy.

Make no mistake, the Alternative for Germany is likely to have a greatly increased presence in the new Bundestag

Mohamed Chebaro

Yes, it is easy to think that Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union/ Christian Social Union parliamentary alliance, is likely to make it as the next chancellor, either alone or with the decimated Social Democratic and Green parties. But make no mistake, the Alternative for Germany is likely to have a greatly increased presence in the new Bundestag as a result of a unique act of meddling in an election of an allied nation.

Musk, it seems, has Germany in his sights. His unrelenting posts on his social media platform are evidently trying to prop up the hard right and undermine the traditional political elite, public institutions and order. His pro-Alternative for Germany opinion article, translated and published in the conservative German newspaper Die Welt last month, ought to be seen as scandalous by most Germans, who still believe that the US is a model democracy.

One could easily dismiss Musk’s political initiatives as being closely linked to him furthering his economic interests, especially as he has repeatedly criticized the EU as undemocratic. This follows the bloc seeking to curb what it believes to be rampant disinformation on social media through new content laws, regulations and accountability.

Come Feb. 23, Germany’s voters should not be envied. Whatever choice they make is likely to change the face of their democracy, unless voters know how to fend off the East-West pincer movement against their democracy and vote in a way that ensures the survival of their country.

Their nation’s standing could be in the balance, as well as the EU project, even if we believe that those protagonists from East and West are demonstrating a mere frustration with liberal democracy and are not part of the more malign campaigns that are also affecting the UK and France, with support afforded to the controversial Reform party of Nigel Farage or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.