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For the first time, Arab Americans will next month play a major role in a US presidential election. Their anger and despair over the war in Gaza has united the constituency in a new way. While many Arab Americans recognize that former President Donald Trump is more pro-Israel than the other major candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, many are determined to use their vote to express their opposition to the Biden administration’s support for Israel.

Arab Americans make up less than 1 percent of the US population. More identify with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, but there are Arab Americans on both sides. They are a diverse group that includes different types of Muslims and Christians and family origins from a range of Arab countries. They are spread out among multiple states.

Historically, the Arab American community’s small size, diversity and lack of concentration in a particular part of the country limited its importance as a potential voting bloc. However, several factors have boosted Arab American voters’ ability to shape the US election.

First, the presidential election will depend on the outcomes in a few battleground states, where the race is very close. This situation allows small groups to have more influence and Arab Americans have significant numbers in several battleground states, most notably Michigan. Second, the last two presidential elections showed that Arab Americans can be a swing constituency, with the potential to back Democratic or Republican candidates. Third, the war in Gaza has unified Arab Americans around a single issue.

Read our full coverage here: US Elections 2024: What Arab Americans want

The new Arab News/YouGov poll offers valuable insights into how Arab Americans will vote. Arab Americans share the same concerns as many other Americans and the poll shows that the economy and cost of living are important priorities for them. Arab Americans appear to favor Trump on these issues, with 47 percent of respondents saying that Trump is better for the economy, compared to 41 percent for Harris.

However, 29 percent of respondents said that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their top priority — higher than any other specific category in the poll. This finding matches other reporting that has emphasized that fury over the suffering of civilians in Gaza has become a unifying force among Arab Americans.

The poll provides fascinating data on how opposition to the Biden administration’s continuing support for Israel could play out in the election. It indicates that Arab Americans are strongly motivated to vote, with 87 percent saying they plan to do so. A strong majority — 69 percent — see Trump as the candidate who is the most supportive of Israel’s government, compared to 60 percent for Harris. But they also tend to see Trump as the most likely to “successfully resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict” (39 percent compared to 33 percent for Harris) — although, in the poll, 27 percent chose a third-party candidate, none of the candidates or said they did not know. Respondents were evenly divided on whether Trump or Harris would be better for the Middle East. Considering that the poll has a margin of error of 5.93 percent, the results suggest that Arab Americans are divided about which candidate might best address their concerns about Palestinian rights, with a slight advantage to Trump.

Unless Harris overtly breaks with Biden on his policy and promises a change in course, many Arab Americans see her as part of the problem.

Kerry Boyd Anderson

Notably, Arab Americans prefer Harris as a leader in terms of their own community’s needs and safety, as 46 percent said that “racism/hate attacks” against their community are more likely under Trump, compared to only 23 percent who see Harris as a bigger threat. Furthermore, 39 percent of respondents said that Harris is “more sensitive to the national needs and problems” of Arab Americans, compared to 31 percent for Trump.

Yet, the poll finds that 45 percent of Arab Americans said they will vote for Trump, compared to 43 percent for Harris. Importantly, 10 percent said they will vote for a third-party candidate or have not decided.

Given concerns about Trump’s ability to fuel anti-Arab sentiment and the extremely pro-Israel policies that he pursued as president, many observers might find it astonishing that Arab Americans are split about who to vote for. However, while many Arab Americans dislike Trump, they see that President Joe Biden has presided over foreign policy during the greatest crisis for Palestinians in decades. In the face of Gaza’s utter destruction, more than 40,000 Palestinians dead, growing anti-Palestinian violence in the West Bank and now war in Lebanon, Biden has continued to provide huge amounts of aid and weapons to Israel. The Biden administration’s efforts to persuade Israel to do more for civilians in Gaza appear hollow to Arab Americans, who often have familial and social connections to people who are directly suffering from the conflict.

Harris is not Biden and she has made stronger statements than him about her concern for civilians in Gaza. However, she is the vice president in the current administration; unless she overtly breaks with Biden on his policy and promises a change in course, many Arab Americans see her as part of the problem.

In the view of many Arab Americans, Trump might be better or worse on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but there is little they can do about that. However, they can send a clear message to the Democratic Party that it cannot take their votes for granted. To put it more bluntly, they want to send a message that Democrats cannot use taxpayer money to help Israel kill Arab civilians and expect them to acquiesce in the polling booth.

Only a couple of years ago, it would have been impossible to predict that the Israeli-Palestinian issue or Arab American voters might determine a US presidential election. Yet, at a time of extreme violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a historically tight presidential race, that is today’s reality.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. X: @KBAresearch