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Will West Bank be next in Israel’s firing line?

Will West Bank be next in Israel’s firing line?

Will West Bank be next in Israel’s firing line?
A Palestinian stands beside a car torched by Israeli settlers in the West Bank village of Jinsafut on Jan. 21, 2025. (AP)
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A huge sigh of relief was breathed on Sunday, when a truce in Gaza between Israel and Hamas came into effect — as uncertain and fragile as this hiatus in the hostilities still feels. There was relief for all who hoped that the death and devastation that had ruled supreme for months would come to an end. Yet, in our focus on Gaza — and rightly so for obvious reasons — we were neglecting the deteriorating conditions in the West Bank, where there has been an increasing number of violent incidents and it has become even more apparent that the settler movement has lost any measure of either morality or pragmatism that it might have possessed before Oct. 7, 2023.

For any reasonable person of conscience, the last 15 months have been a time of excruciating pain and sorrow. Yet, for a substantial number of the settlers and, even worse, their leadership, it has been perceived as an opportune moment to accelerate their clear ambition to annex the West Bank to Israel and, by that, confining the notion of the two-state solution to the history books.

It is not unreasonable to argue that there is nothing new in pointing out that the settler movement would like to annex the West Bank. Or that, from the very first time those with religious-messianic-nationalist zeal set foot in this land, this was their objective. Furthermore, one of their main tools for achieving this was to marginalize, if not expel, the Palestinians who have lived there for many generations.

But the war has released even worse demons among certain elements of the settlers, who feel exonerated in their claim that there is no prospect of peace with the Palestinians, not just with Hamas, and that any difference between those who engage in militancy, even terrorism, and the rest of the Palestinian people is artificial, misguided and a threat to the survival of Israel. For them, the brutality of Oct. 7 justifies any level of brutality against all Palestinians, militants or not. Perceptually and practically for these settlers, it has created a once-in-a-generation opportunity to resolve this conflict by taking total control of the “promised land.”

The war in Gaza has given a tailwind to these extremist settlers, who follow a distorted version of both Judaism and Zionism. In addition to feeling vindicated, they have also witnessed a world that for so long has done so very little to stop the carnage in Gaza, despite the horrific daily images beamed from there to our TV screens. In their minds, resettling at least parts of Gaza and ethnically cleansing it is completely legitimate.

And if this could be done in Gaza, why not in the West Bank? After all, for so long those extremists among the settlers — and it is worth emphasizing that they are a minority, although a vocal and dominant one, who resort to terrorism against their Palestinian neighbors — have acted with complete impunity, in many cases with at least the tacit support of the Israeli government and army. Then came what they now see as the “miracle” of Oct. 7, which has provided them with a divine license to accelerate attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, but this time with the idea of emulating what is taking place in Gaza.

For certain settlers, the brutality of Oct. 7 justifies any level of brutality against all Palestinians, militants or not

Yossi Mekelberg

They do not even bother to hide their intentions. In the government, it is the odd couple of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich who are leading this line. The main reason that Finance Minister Smotrich is not as much in the limelight for expressing some outrageous views is that his colleague, Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, is outperforming him in the revulsion stakes.

This was the case before they entered politics, when they became elected politicians and, equally so if not worse, since they, by a fluke of history — in other words, through Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desperation — were appointed as Cabinet ministers in key positions. Yet, Smotrich’s comments in a meeting with heads of the settler movement earlier this month — the day after a terror attack near the settlement of Kedumim that killed three settlers — should send shivers down the spines of those who have any regard for the rights and well-being of the Palestinians in the West Bank.

His request for an urgent meeting with the security Cabinet and call to take the offensive against cells of Palestinian militants “until they are completely destroyed” may have been from the same rhetorical playbook of “total victory” in Gaza. But his claim to have drafted a plan that would make the Palestinian towns of “Al-Funduq, Nablus and Jenin look like Jabalia,” in northern Gaza, should receive the full attention of the international community before more war crimes are committed.

“Looking like Jabalia” means total destruction. Even in the general horrendous devastation that has befallen most of Gaza over the last 15 months, Jabalia stands out as suffering more than most. Until recently, it was one of the Occupied Territories’ largest camps, with half of its 200,000 residents officially registered as refugees. By the time the ceasefire was called last week, it was almost deserted. Even former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon last month referred to what was happening there as ethnic cleansing.

Aerial photography shows acre after acre of rubble, with almost no people. And this is what one of the prominent settler leaders envisages for Palestinian towns and cities in the West Bank. And it is not only Smotrich. The mayor of the illegal settlement of Ariel, Yair Shtebon, has demanded a large-scale military operation in the West Bank “that destroys the refugee camps in Judea and Samaria, in Tulkarem, in Jenin, in Nablus and wherever there is a threat to residents of Israel.”

Before we witnessed what was happening to large parts of Gaza at the hands of the Israeli army, we could have shrugged our shoulders and regarded Smotrich and Shtebon’s statements as pieces of vile rhetoric to rally the political base, but one that would never be translated into an actionable plan. But now, we — or, more accurately, the Palestinians — ignore this threatening language at our peril. Fifty years ago, not many envisaged 700,000 settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, or that certain elements within them would resort to terrorism and their representatives would hold key positions in the Israeli government. Currently, this is a daily reality.

Unless those who are using this kind of language are sanctioned and removed from power, under international pressure if necessary, these extremist settlers will continue to believe that their “grand design” for the Holy Land is within touching distance.

• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg

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