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With the US presidential election just two weeks away, dozens of polls are being released, each attempting to predict the outcome. Voters, particularly in swing states, are being bombarded with calls and messages from pollsters eager to capture the mood of the electorate.

Recently, a poll was jointly conducted by the Arab News Research and Studies Unit and YouGov to gauge Arab American opinions on the upcoming presidential election. Arab Americans, an important demographic, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome, especially in battleground states like Michigan, where an estimated 400,000 Arab Americans reside. Michigan is pivotal in the race for the White House and whoever wins the presidency will likely have to secure this state.

Former President Donald Trump appears to be making inroads with grassroots segments of the Arab American community, as evidenced by the recent endorsement of several local government Arab American officials. On the other hand, younger, more civically active Arab American students, who have been protesting across campuses over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, lean toward supporting Vice President Kamala Harris. Notably, the Arab American Political Action Committee, one of the largest PACs representing Arab Americans, recently announced that it would not endorse either candidate.

One must approach the polling of certain demographics with caution. Arab Americans are not a monolith. The Arab world is diverse and each Arab American family in the US has its own unique background. The recent YouGov-Arab News poll reflects this complexity, showing that Arab Americans are as divided as the rest of the country. While Trump holds a slight edge over Harris in terms of preference, this lead is within the poll’s margin of error, indicating that the community remains sharply divided.

Despite this division, some interesting observations can be made from the poll. First, bread-and-butter issues still dominate voters’ concerns. While 29 percent of Arab Americans identify the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the most pressing issue, it is notable that 71 percent of respondents believe other issues are more important. In fact, when combining the responses for the cost of living (21 percent), the economy (21 percent) and the jobs market (9 percent) — which can be grouped under economic concerns — a majority (51 percent) of Arab Americans are more concerned with economic issues. This highlights that, like most Americans, they are primarily focused on their day-to-day financial well-being and job security as they head to the polls. Furthermore, 47 percent of Arab American respondents believe Trump is best placed to fix the economy.

Read our full coverage here: US Elections 2024: What Arab Americans want

Second, the poll suggests that Arab Americans are open to supporting a candidate perceived as pro-Israel, as long as that candidate is also viewed as fair to Arab interests. This presents an advantage for Trump. Unlike Harris, who has remained largely idle on Middle Eastern matters, Trump’s first term was filled with historic initiatives in the region. The best example is the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco.

Before the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, there were reports that additional Arab nations were close to normalizing relations with Israel. Trump’s track record in the Middle East likely explains the paradox in the poll: he is seen as both the most pro-Israel candidate and the candidate most capable of brokering a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians.

Third, there is a noticeable reluctance among Arab Americans to support military action against Iran and its proxy forces. Only 4 percent of respondents favored the use of military force. Most believed the US should reduce its military footprint in the region — a sentiment that aligns with the broader American population.

After two decades of conflict, most Americans, including Arab Americans, are instinctively hesitant to engage US forces in the Middle East unless there is clear leadership from the White House explaining why it is necessary. In recent years, this has not been the case.

However, another paradox in the polling emerges here: while Trump enjoys support among Arab Americans, he has also been willing to use military force to deter Iran. His administration’s decision to kill Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 is a prime example. Additionally, despite Trump’s intention to withdraw US forces from Syria, it never fully materialized during his first term. Also, whoever wins the race to the White House will have to deal with the question of US forces in the region, especially in Iraq.

While half of Arab Americans reported that they have not experienced “racism, harassment or hate attacks related to their ethnicity, religion or origins,” a strikingly high 46 percent believe that “racism and hate crimes” would increase under another Trump presidency. It is undeniable that certain factions within the Republican Party have displayed racist and Islamophobic undertones in recent years directed at the Arab American community. If this poll signals anything to Republicans, it is that those promoting such views must be actively pushed out of the party.

It is not inconceivable that Arab Americans could tip the balance in the crucial battleground state of Michigan.

Luke Coffey

On issues like the economy, immigration reform, border security and even abortion (with 54 percent of Arab Americans believing it should either be banned altogether or allowed only in certain circumstances), the Arab American community tends to lean ideologically conservative. Looking ahead, the Republican Party would be wise to embrace this demographic with open arms.

As the election nears, both Trump and Harris have recognized the importance of Arab American voters, particularly in swing states like Michigan. Given that Joe Biden won Michigan in 2020 by just 2.8 percent, it is not inconceivable that Arab Americans could tip the balance in this crucial battleground state.

The divides within the Arab American community reflect the broader national debate on foreign policy, economic stability and the US’ role in the Middle East. Arab Americans, like the rest of the electorate, are watching closely to see how each candidate will address these issues.

What impact the Arab American community will have in November’s election remains to be seen. However, it is clear that this community will only become more important in the future.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey