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As a result of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known as the AKP, failing to obtain a majority in the country’s major metropolitan municipalities during the municipal elections in March, the political atmosphere in Turkiye may become smoother.

The first sign of this was a courtesy visit paid by Ozgur Ozel, the leader of the main opposition CHP party, to Erdogan. During this meeting, Erdogan underlined that he would return Ozel’s visit, which means further confirmation of smoother relations among Turkiye’s political parties. “Turkiye’s political life needs this,” he confirmed.

With this visit, Erdogan received a rival he used to belittle. The country has needed a smoother political atmosphere for decades, but Erdogan was the main impediment to it. As long as he was able to implement a harsher policy, he did not need to smoothen it. The last elections taught him this reality.

Opposition leader Ozel also made another goodwill gesture by visiting the leader of the AKP’s unofficial coalition partner, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party, known as the MHP. This party has 50 seats in the parliament and Erdogan regularly consults leader Devlet Bahceli just for the sake of courtesy, as otherwise the AKP could lose its majority.

Another practice that was abandoned for decades has now been revived. Erdogan has instructed three key ministers — foreign affairs, interior and defense — that he will brief them before they pay a visit to a foreign country. Such a practice existed before the Erdogan era, though intermittently. In other words, the AKP is learning anew the old state’s practices.

However, Erdogan has not given up all of his old habits. For instance, last week, he banned May Day demonstrations in places where he thought things might get out of control. The bloodiest May 1 meeting was the one that took place in 1977, when 34 civilians lost their lives, mostly because of a stampede but some due to bullets fired by fanatics. Another 136 people were seriously injured.

The biggest task lying ahead of Erdogan is to gain the support of the Kurdish DEM Party in the elections to be held in May 2028. The speaker of the parliament paid a visit to DEM but, as this was only a preliminary contact, nothing substantive was discussed. Several Kurdish parties have been deceived in the past by the major political parties because of promises that were not kept. So, the Kurds will be cautious about forming a coalition with the likes of the AKP. 

The AKP is learning anew the old state’s practices. However, Erdogan has not given up all of his old habits.

Yasar Yakis

Like many societies around the world, Turkish society is divided according to several fault lines, mostly between secularists and conservatives, which constitute the majority. A curious outcome of this is the fall in the proportion of the youth who identify as conservatives. The proportion of those who identify as conservative has fallen in the last 10 years from 28 percent to 15 percent. A smaller group call themselves “deists” and they believe that the universe was created by a creator, but do not speculate on how and why it was created. They believe in the existence of a God, but not the way it is described in the holy books. Analysts are embarrassed to find an explanation of how, under a conservative government like the AKP’s, the number of young conservatives has gone down.

Erdogan is in search of a political situation that would allow him to amend the country’s constitution. His party currently has 268 of the 600 seats in the parliament. The number of votes required to amend the constitution is 360. Therefore, the AKP is far from the required majority. Its unofficial coalition partner, the far-right MHP, which has 50 seats, does not make up the shortfall. Erdogan may again manage to persuade some of his former colleagues to give him a helping hand, but he needs a miracle to achieve the required support for a constitutional amendment.

Erdogan will know that he cannot persuade the main opposition CHP to join him in amending the constitution. However, he might be able to create a schism within the CHP and try to attract some members of the party to give a helping hand to the AKP’s constitutional amendment. If he is capable of splitting the CHP and pulling some members to the opposite side, this would help weaken the party. Or he may try to form a group that would vote in line with the constitutional amendment.

Before the last general election held in May 2023, a “table of six” alliance of opposition parties was established. Most of these parties won less than 1 percent of the votes. As soon as the election results were declared, some of these parties began to support the AKP.

The AKP’s opening toward the Kurdish DEM Party is perceived as a repetition of the mistreatment they suffered for years. Kurdish voters constitute the most politicized segment of the Turkish electorate. If they obtain a concession, they will not waste the opportunity. The Kurdish votes of the DEM Party may change the balance, but they will not extend this assistance in exchange for nothing.

• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party.
X: @yakis_yasar