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This has been a terrible year for Lebanon. Many of the country’s problems had been accumulating for years; they most notably started with the financial crash in 2019, followed by the Beirut port explosion in August 2020 and then the deadlock in electing a president since 2022. The Gaza war has also had a spillover effect on Lebanon, as skirmishes erupted between Hezbollah and Israel on Oct. 8, 2023. In September, however, the dynamic of the conflict changed and Israel began an all-out war on Lebanon, targeting all areas of the country, not just Hezbollah strongholds. Lebanon has reached the abyss. The question now is: will there be a way out in 2025?

This year has been mainly marked by a political deadlock, which reflects a highly polarized society, and by the Israeli war.

When the mandate of President Michel Aoun expired at the end of October 2022, the political class could not agree on a replacement. Hezbollah insisted on their candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, while the anti-Hezbollah camp categorically rejected him. As a result, no president was elected and the country was run by a caretaker government. One year later, the Gaza war started and Hezbollah opened a “support front.” The group found in this conflict another excuse to defer the issue of electing a president.

The war in Gaza was a threat to Hezbollah. It knew that, if Israel was successful, it would be next. This is why Hezbollah opened its support front. While it was portrayed as a war of solidarity, for the group it was a security need. Prior to the war on Gaza, the group was under scrutiny for not abiding by UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The international community was exerting a lot of pressure to push the group to comply with it. The solidarity front was a gamble that Hezbollah took.

This year has been mainly marked by a political deadlock, which reflects a highly polarized society, and by the Israeli war.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The bet was on an early ceasefire, which the group could use to claim victory and cash in on it politically. In September, however, the tide of the conflict changed. It is likely Israel had been preparing for this war for years. In its 2006 war on Lebanon, Israel realized the deficiency it had on the intelligence front. So, it started focusing on gathering intelligence.

Hezbollah also became a business empire, from having its own bank to multiple other businesses. It has also been accused of being involved in the Captagon trade. The group became porous. Top Hezbollah commanders became known to Israel. Tel Aviv used sophisticated technology to identify and target them. This led the group to rely on pagers, which are more basic and hence more difficult to trace.

Then came September’s attack on Hezbollah’s pagers. This attack changed the tide of the war. In a highly effective operation, Israel was able to tamper with the pagers used by Hezbollah members. It was able to target important operatives in the group. Afterward, Israel went on a bombing and assassination spree in Lebanon. All this was happening while Lebanon had no president and no real government or any effective diplomacy. In the 2006 war, Lebanese diplomacy worked to find an end to the war, with then-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora dispatching the highly qualified Dr. Tarek Mitri. Today, Lebanese diplomacy is at best numb.

On Nov. 22, Lebanon marked its worst independence day since the civil war. Four days later, a ceasefire deal was signed. Can Lebanon now resurrect itself or will it linger as a failing state for the next 30 years? Which option is more likely? The renowned Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla asked me two days before writing this piece: What is next for Lebanon, is it scenario one or scenario two?

I personally think the situation will improve. It might get worse before it gets better. But it cannot get much worse because, as I said, we have reached the abyss. A quarter of the buildings in the south of Lebanon have been damaged or destroyed.

So, what is next? What should happen so that we can have a better future?

Unlike 2006, when Arab countries donated money for the country’s reconstruction with no strings attached, this time any aid will be conditional on three elements. Firstly, the Arab states and the wider international community will not accept the dominance of an armed faction in Lebanon. Secondly, they will want a credible government to handle the reconstruction process. Thirdly, they will want a transparent process. They will not compromise on good governance for the sake of stability like they did before.

The donor community should insist on a government of technocrats that is focused on governance, not political polarization.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Hence, Hezbollah will, on Jan. 9, be pushed to elect a consensual president, who will then appoint a credible government that can garner the trust of the Arab world and the international community. This credible government will probably be a government of technocrats that is focused on elevating Lebanon. This is unlike previous governments, in which the different ministers were busy dividing the pie among the various members of the political class. The donor community should insist on a government of technocrats that is focused on governance, not political polarization.

The good news is that there is a nucleus of good governance. The calamity that has been inflicted on Lebanon has brought with it an opportunity: the country established a government emergency committee that came up with a transparent, efficient and effective process to handle 1.2 million displaced people. This process includes the management and monitoring of aid deliveries. It could be replicated in different government departments and developed to manage Lebanon’s recovery and reconstruction.

The other positive element is the fact that Lebanon is a small country. A few billion dollars would be enough to rebuild infrastructure and jumpstart the economy. The country has human capital and the Lebanese are known for their entrepreneurial spirit. Recovery can happen quicker than we might expect. Also, members of the diaspora will come back and invest if they see that there is a credible government and that the country is stable and no longer controlled by a corrupt political class.

However, this is all speculation and maybe my analysis has been influenced by my own wishful thinking. However, deep down, I have a conviction that my country, like the phoenix, will rise from the ashes.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.