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For more than a decade, the Rohingya people of Myanmar have faced unimaginable suffering: denied citizenship, subjected to systemic violence and forced to flee their ancestral homes. Today, nearly 1 million of them live in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh, where dwindling international aid and political instability have pushed them to the brink.

Yet, amid this grim reality, a potential shift in the dynamics of Myanmar’s Rakhine State offers a glimmer of hope. The Arakan Army, a rebel group that now controls 11 of Rakhine’s 18 townships, has recently expressed openness to repatriating the Rohingya. This development signals a rare opportunity for meaningful engagement — but only if it is approached with clear demands for justice and rights.

Efforts to repatriate the Rohingya to Myanmar have failed repeatedly. Agreements between Bangladesh and Myanmar’s junta, the primary architects of the 2017 genocide, have been marked by insincerity and broken promises. These deals, rooted in a superficial desire to placate international outrage, have prioritized political optics over the safety and dignity of the Rohingya.

The result is a perpetual cycle of displacement. The Rohingya in Bangladesh are trapped in limbo, unable to return home and increasingly unwelcome in their host country. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military rulers continue to deny them citizenship and equal rights, perpetuating the conditions that drove them to flee in the first place.

It has expressed a willingness to coexist with the Rohingya. Its leader has hinted at supporting their safe return and reintegration

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The emergence of the Arakan Army as a dominant power in Rakhine State presents an alternative pathway. Unlike the junta, it has expressed a willingness to coexist with the Rohingya. Its leader, Maj. Gen. Twan Mrat Naing, has hinted at supporting their safe return and reintegration.

This shift is significant because the group’s authority in Rakhine gives it control over the very areas the Rohingya once called home. Moreover, the Arakan Army’s political arm, the United League of Arakan, has demonstrated a degree of pragmatism in its governance. While it remains far from a perfect partner, the Arakan Army’s growing influence cannot be ignored.

For Bangladesh, which shoulders the immense burden of hosting the largest Rohingya refugee population, engagement with the Arakan Army could provide a much-needed breakthrough. Dhaka must acknowledge that its past reliance on agreements with Myanmar’s junta has achieved little. Instead, it should pursue a broader strategy that includes dialogue with the Arakan Army and the national unity government, Myanmar’s shadow government composed of democratic forces.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations also has a role to play. The regional bloc’s historical policy of noninterference has enabled the junta’s impunity, but the shifting power dynamics in Rakhine offer an opportunity for it to recalibrate its approach. By facilitating dialogue among all stakeholders, ASEAN could help lay the groundwork for a sustainable solution.

The urgency of this moment cannot be overstated. Conditions in Bangladesh’s refugee camps are deteriorating rapidly. International donors, fatigued by the protracted crisis, have slashed aid, leaving families without adequate food, healthcare or education.

For the Rohingya, repatriation is not just a matter of returning home; it is a matter of survival. But returning them to Myanmar without guarantees of safety, citizenship and justice would be tantamount to sending them back into the jaws of persecution.

Engaging with the Arakan Army is not without risks. The group’s history of armed conflict and its ultimate ambitions for autonomy raise questions about its long-term intentions. However, any repatriation initiative must be built on a foundation of accountability and rights.

The Rohingya must be recognized as citizens of Myanmar, with the same rights and protections as any other ethnic group. This includes the right to own land, access education and participate in political life. Moreover, the perpetrators of the 2017 genocide must be held accountable, whether through international tribunals or domestic mechanisms supported by the national unity government and other allies.

The international community must seize this moment to rethink its approach to the Rohingya crisis

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Without these guarantees, repatriation risks becoming another hollow gesture — one that leaves the root causes of the crisis unaddressed and the Rohingya vulnerable to further exploitation.

The international community must seize this moment to rethink its approach to the Rohingya crisis. Governments, nongovernmental organizations and multilateral institutions should support Bangladesh in engaging with the Arakan Army and the national unity government, providing the resources and diplomatic backing needed to facilitate meaningful dialogue.

Additionally, donor nations must reverse cuts to humanitarian aid for Rohingya refugees. The failure to address their immediate needs undermines the credibility of any long-term solution.

The Rohingya themselves must be included in all discussions about their future. Too often, their voices have been marginalized in the very debates that determine their fate. A just resolution to this crisis is impossible without their full participation.

The road to justice for the Rohingya will be neither simple nor swift. But the emergence of the Arakan Army as a key player in Rakhine State offers a chance to chart a new course — one that prioritizes rights, accountability and long-term stability.

By engaging with all stakeholders, including the Arakan Army and the national unity government, and centering the Rohingya’s needs and aspirations, the international community can help turn this fragile opportunity into a foundation for lasting peace. To let this moment slip away would be to abandon a people who have already suffered far too much.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim