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The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has spiraled into a complex quagmire, with the Rohingya people, who have historically been marginalized and targeted for violence, now being dragged into a bloody conflict that poses a significant risk to their already precarious existence.

Ironically, some Rohingya groups, such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization, are aligning themselves with the junta against the Arakan Army, further complicating an already dire situation. This alignment could have devastating consequences for the Rohingya community, which has largely stayed out of the conflict until now.

Historically, the Rohingya have been victims of ethnic cleansing, forced from their homes in Rakhine State into refugee camps and neighboring countries. In recent years, many have sought to avoid engaging in the violent struggles that define Myanmar’s landscape. However, the emergence of the Arakan Army — a powerful ethnic armed group fighting for autonomy in Rakhine — has changed the dynamics on the ground. Faced with the potential threat posed by the Arakan Army to their already vulnerable position, some Rohingya groups have made the fateful decision to ally with the military regime, perceiving it as a lesser evil.

This decision is fraught with peril. The junta, which has committed egregious human rights violations against various ethnic groups, is not a reliable ally. By siding with the military, the Rohingya risk further alienation from other ethnic groups and heightening hostilities, which could backfire catastrophically. The Arakan Army, which has significant support among the Rakhine people, is unlikely to forgive or forget this betrayal. The Rohingya’s historical victimization has not erased the deep-seated animosities that persist in the region and siding with the junta could very well deepen the rift between the Rohingya and other ethnic communities.

Some Rohingya groups are aligning themselves with the junta, which could have devastating consequences

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The motivations behind these alliances are complex. The Rohingya groups’ decision to engage in combat is driven by fear of the Arakan Army, which has been gaining ground in Rakhine State. It has been accused of violence against civilians and has even targeted Rohingya communities, exacerbating the fragile state of affairs for the Rohingya people. In this context, the junta appears to offer a pragmatic, if morally questionable, solution for some Rohingya leaders. However, this is a dangerously shortsighted strategy that overlooks the broader implications of aligning with a military regime that has systematically oppressed the Rohingya for decades.

The irony of the situation is striking. The Rohingya, long considered one of the most persecuted minorities in the world, are now finding themselves in an adversarial position against other ethnic groups in Myanmar. The junta is leveraging this situation to further its own ends, playing the Rohingya and the Arakan Army off against each other while continuing its brutal campaign against both. In doing so, it risks deepening the already significant ethnic divides in Myanmar, a country that has long been characterized by its complex and often violent interethnic relationships.

The Rohingya people’s involvement in the conflict does not merely risk their own safety; it threatens to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. Many Rohingya communities are already living in dire conditions, with limited access to basic necessities like food, healthcare and shelter. By engaging in conflict, these groups could further jeopardize humanitarian efforts, drawing international attention away from the plight of the Rohingya and shifting it toward the broader conflict between the junta and various ethnic armed groups.

Furthermore, this strategy could isolate the Rohingya from the growing international support that has emerged for their cause. Human rights organizations and various governments have condemned the junta’s actions against the Rohingya, but by aligning with the military these groups risk losing that critical support. The international community is unlikely to look favorably upon a group that chooses to side with an oppressive regime, no matter the circumstances.

The Rohingya are now finding themselves in an adversarial position against other ethnic groups in Myanmar

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

In essence, the Rohingya’s involvement in Myanmar’s civil war is a tragic example of how desperation can lead to catastrophic decisions. The groups that choose to align with the junta may believe they are securing a form of protection against the Arakan Army, but they are in fact trading one form of oppression for another. The consequences of such a choice could reverberate through the community for generations, as they find themselves trapped in a cycle of violence and retaliation.

The plight of the Rohingya should serve as a warning for all stakeholders in Myanmar. The complexity of ethnic relations, the consequences of aligning with oppressive regimes and the importance of maintaining a focus on humanitarian needs cannot be overstated. As the conflict in Myanmar continues to evolve, it is imperative that the international community pays close attention to the dynamics at play, working to ensure that the Rohingya are not further marginalized in a conflict they never asked to be a part of.

The Rohingya deserve better than to be caught in the crossfire of a conflict that threatens to consume them. As history has shown, alliances built on fear and desperation often lead to further suffering. Instead, the Rohingya need support in their quest for recognition, dignity and a future free from violence — an outcome that can only be achieved through dialogue, understanding and a commitment to peace.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim