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As the war in Gaza continues with no end in sight, the Israeli parliament’s decision last month to sever ties with UNRWA risks adding further volatility to the conflict. The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently canceled the 1967 cooperation agreement that formed the legal basis of Israel’s relations with the UN agency. This agreement provided UNRWA with protection and diplomatic immunity. Foreign Minister Israel Katz said this decision was motivated by Israel’s assessment that UNRWA’s alleged ties to Hamas make it complicit in the ongoing conflict.

Since its establishment in 1949, UNRWA has been a lifeline for Palestinian refugees, delivering vital services such as education, healthcare, food assistance and emergency relief. Its prominence has particularly grown in the last two decades, as the number of refugees dependent on it for food assistance has grown from 80,000 people in 2000 to more than 2 million today. As of 2023, the poverty rate in Gaza stood at 64 percent and in the West Bank it was 12 percent.

This Israeli move will disrupt Gaza’s fragile aid distribution system at a time when the humanitarian crisis has been greatly exacerbated and Israel is facing growing pressures to allow aid into the Strip. The Palestinian Authority is already facing a severe financial crisis amid the war and economic collapse and is struggling to pay public servants. This may increase dependence on Hamas for social services and support, given its role in the governance structure in Gaza. However, this will further delay the resolution of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

This move will disrupt Gaza’s fragile aid distribution system at a time when the humanitarian crisis has been greatly exacerbated

Zaid M. Belbagi

The gap in humanitarian aid caused by UNRWA’s withdrawal from Gaza will inevitably require the support of regional and international actors. Until a formal replacement for UNRWA is established, Egypt and the Gulf states will be faced with the primary responsibility for aid and reconstruction in Gaza, as their geographical location makes them particularly vulnerable to outward migration from the Strip. Since October 2023, the Gulf states have already increased their aid outflow to Gaza and this momentum will continue. In the past year, the UAE has sent more than 50,000 tonnes of urgent supplies to Gaza, while ��������Ƶ, in addition to supplies, has announced a monthly financial grant for Palestinians. The two countries are also among the top 20 UNRWA donors.

The US has traditionally been the largest international donor, although in January it temporarily paused all funding to the organization as a result of Israel’s accusation that 12 Hamas-linked UNRWA staff were involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Nonetheless, the US will play a key role in filling the aid vacuum in Gaza, as it has expressed deep concern over Israel’s latest move. Moreover, incoming President Donald Trump is keenly focused on regional stability to expedite US military withdrawal from the Middle East. The next US administration may increase the flow of aid to Gaza while encouraging Israel to replace UNRWA.

The US will play a key role in filling the aid vacuum in Gaza, as it has expressed deep concern over Israel’s latest move

Zaid M. Belbagi

In response to Israel’s letter to the UN on severing ties with UNRWA, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted that it is Tel Aviv’s responsibility to establish or appoint a replacement for the aid agency. UNRWA is not the sole aid agency operating in Gaza and the West Bank, with several leading international humanitarian organizations like the Palestine Red Crescent Society, Doctors Without Borders, the UN Population Fund and UNICEF also present. However, UNRWA, known as the “backbone of the humanitarian response in Gaza,” has served as a consolidated anchor agency for Palestinian refugees in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. It will therefore be a major challenge for a single organization to replace it.

Israel’s decision comes at a critical juncture in the conflict in the Middle East, which, though far from being over, will be followed by a mammoth reconstruction effort in Gaza that could cost nearly $80 billion. Postconflict rebuilding will require not only financial support but also on-the-ground experience of working with Palestinian refugees and authorities, which is UNRWA’s expertise. Due to the lack of a stable political system in Gaza and the West Bank, the removal of UNRWA translates into the removal of the most advanced available administrative structure in the Occupied Territories.

While the Israeli decision is unlikely to be reversed, the international community is likely to encourage Israel to expand the avenues of humanitarian aid into Gaza and to increase cooperation with the other humanitarian agencies present in the region.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid