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The Rohingya minority, long persecuted and displaced, now faces an existential crisis. In a generation or two, the Rohingya as a distinct ethnic group may cease to exist. As hundreds of thousands continue to pour across the border from Myanmar into Bangladesh, we are reaching a critical point. Soon, there will be so few Rohingya left in Myanmar that it will be nearly impossible for them to reconstitute themselves as a coherent ethnic group. Already unrecognized by the state and many elements of society, the Rohingya’s survival as a people is under serious threat.
The sheer number of Rohingya who have fled Myanmar is staggering. With estimates reaching more than a million, the majority of these refugees are now living in Bangladesh. This influx continues unabated, as tens of thousands more arrive, joining an already densely packed refugee population. Inside Bangladesh’s refugee camps, birth rates are high and a new generation of Rohingya are growing up in a world far removed from their ancestral homeland. Those in this new generation, isolated from Myanmar, are facing the gradual erosion of their cultural identity.
The Rohingya in Bangladesh’s camps have little to no exposure to their language, way of life, history or cultural practices. Instead, the education they receive, if any, often follows the Bangladesh curriculum, which further distances them from their roots. With no access to their homeland, they have little chance to learn about the specific history and culture of the Rohingya people. The camps, by design, prioritize survival over cultural preservation and, as the years drag on, the cultural fabric of the Rohingya is slowly unraveling.
Given this trajectory, we can reasonably expect the Rohingya to disappear as a distinct identity within one or two generations. They will not vanish in a literal sense, but their identity will be diluted in refugee camps across Bangladesh and other parts of the world. Stripped of their connection to their homeland, with no means to practice their traditions, and assimilated into broader refugee populations, the Rohingya face the same fate as other peoples whose descendants exist but no longer as cohesive groups or civilizations.
The tragedy of the Rohingya is that they are being erased not just physically but culturally. Historically, their existence has been denied by the Myanmar state and they have been subjected to relentless violence and ethnic cleansing. Their statelessness has only compounded their plight. The Myanmar government’s refusal to recognize the Rohingya as a legitimate ethnic group has long been a tool of erasure and now, it seems, that erasure is becoming a tragic reality. Once driven from their land, without recognition or protection, the Rohingya are left to navigate a world that has little regard for preserving their identity.
In Bangladesh, despite the host country’s initial welcome, the Rohingya are treated as temporary guests, with no path to citizenship or permanent settlement. Their lives are confined to the vast refugee camps, where they are dependent on international aid for survival. With no rights or prospects for a stable future, the Rohingya are locked in a cycle of poverty and despair. Meanwhile, the international community has failed to mount a significant or sustained effort to address the root causes of their displacement or to provide a long-term solution for their plight.

We can reasonably expect the Rohingya to disappear as a distinct identity within one or two generations. 

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Moreover, the children growing up in the camps are facing a future of uncertainty. As they mature in an environment far removed from their homeland, they are unlikely to develop a deep connection to Rohingya culture or history. In the absence of robust educational efforts that center on their identity, the younger generation will become increasingly disconnected from their roots. Over time, they may come to identify more with the broader refugee community in Bangladesh or, as some hope, integrate into Bangladeshi society, albeit in an unofficial or marginalized capacity.
This slow erosion of identity is reminiscent of the fate of other ethnic groups that have faced displacement and cultural erasure. Once-flourishing civilizations like the Mayans and Incans, for example, now survive largely through their descendants who live scattered across different regions, often assimilated into other cultures. While their histories are remembered, they no longer exist as cohesive groups or civilizations in the way they once did. The Rohingya may be on a similar path. Without a homeland to return to, without recognition as a people and without the means to preserve their culture, they risk becoming another footnote in history.
The situation for the Rohingya is dire, but such a future is not inevitable. There is still time for the international community to intervene in meaningful ways. The most critical first step would be to address the conditions that have led to their displacement. This means holding the Myanmar government accountable for the crimes it has committed against the Rohingya and ensuring that they can return to the country safely and with the full rights of citizenship. This would include formal recognition of their ethnic identity, protection from persecution and reparations for the suffering they have endured.
In parallel, efforts must be made to preserve the Rohingya’s cultural heritage. Educational initiatives in the refugee camps should incorporate their language, history and traditions, giving the younger generation a chance to understand and carry forward their identity. This is not only a matter of cultural preservation but also of human dignity. The Rohingya, like all peoples, have a right to maintain their identity, even in exile.
But time is running out. The longer the Rohingya remain in refugee camps, the more difficult it will be for them to maintain their cultural coherence. As the years pass and new generations grow up without knowledge of their roots, the likelihood of cultural extinction increases. If we do not act now, we may be witnessing the slow, painful disappearance of the Rohingya as a distinct people.
In the end, the fate of the Rohingya will be a test of our collective humanity. Will we allow them to vanish or will we take the necessary steps to preserve their identity and protect their rights? The answer will determine whether the Rohingya will join the list of peoples who once existed but no longer do so in any meaningful way. It is a choice that we cannot afford to make lightly.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim