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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s suggestion last week that “Israel’s next target is Turkiye” marks a crucial shift in rhetoric as we approach the first anniversary of the start of war in Gaza. While Turkiye has consistently characterized Israel’s aggression as endangering regional peace, framing it as a direct threat to Turkiye itself is a notable development.

Turkiye's geopolitical position inevitably ties it closely to the conflict in Gaza, especially in light of Iran’s military responses to Israeli actions. Turkish statements reflect not only concerns for regional stability but also for the war’s broader implications, and Turkish authorities have arrested and charged dozens of people suspected of having ties to Mossad.

Parliamentary Speaker Numan Kurtulmus expressed similar sentiments to Erdogan, and some journalists and policymakers have also highlighted the Israeli threat to Turkiye. The Greater Israel or “promised land” mentioned in the Torah encompasses all or parts of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Kuwait and Turkiye. This perceived threat was fueled by a controversial article in The Jerusalem Post referring specifically to Lebanon. The article was deleted after a significant backlash, but it ignited heated discussions on social media, with critics accusing the publication of endorsing expansionist ideologies under religious pretenses. The incident has amplified Turkish concerns.

Nevertheless, it appears that Turkish policymakers are sending a message less to Israel and more to the US. As a NATO member, Turkiye is unlikely to be a direct military target for Israel, but unwavering US support for Israel is a real concern for Ankara. While Turkiye remained cautious after last week’s Iranian missile attack on Israel, it was especially concerned after President Joe Biden’s promise that the US would assist Israel in defending against further strikes. And although Israel’s offensive into Lebanon came as no surprise, its intensity has begun to cause alarm in Ankara.

As a NATO member, Turkiye is unlikely to be a direct military target for Israel, but unwavering US support for Israel is a real concern for Ankara.

Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye’s engagement in Lebanon reflects a broader Middle East strategy. While it is widely believed that Turkiye’s actions in Lebanon aim to counter Iranian influence, another motivation appears to be a direct counter to Israel. For decades, Turkiye has been actively pursuing a multidimensional foreign policy in Lebanon, seeking to bolster its influence through humanitarian and developmental aid, while also supporting the country’s territorial integrity. As part of Turkiye’s humanitarian policy, hundreds of Lebanese citizens arrived in Istanbul after fleeing Israeli airstrikes.

Erdoğan has warned that the consequences of a ground operation in Lebanon would differ significantly from Israel’s previous occupations, and said Turkiye would stand by Lebanon and support it with all available means. This has raised expectations that Turkiye might consider sending troops, but this is unlikely.

Turkish soldiers are already deployed in Lebanon as part of the UN interim force was established in 1978 when Israel withdrew from Lebanon. The peacekeeping force is intended to provide security and help the Lebanese government rebuild its authority. The force was supposed to create a buffer, but today it is being proved that it is not enough. Moreover, Israel has not hesitated to target UN personnel in defiance of international law.

However, Turkiye’s presence inside the UN force could deter Israeli military action against them. If Israel escalates its military operations in Lebanon, it could significantly alter the regional balance of power and further complicate the conflict dynamics. It could also draw in Syria and Iran. Although Turkiye may not be a key player and its direct investments in Lebanon are small, officials in Ankara are worried that a war between Israel and Hezbollah could trigger a widespread crisis, adversely affecting Turkiye's interests in various countries.

If Israel escalates its military operations in Lebanon, it could significantly alter the regional balance of power.

Sinem Cengiz

The fear that further Israeli incursions in Lebanon could have widespread ramifications influences Ankara’s geopolitical strategy. Policymakers are worried not only about the immediate implications for Lebanon but also the potential for a larger conflict that could affect Turkiye's interests across the region. In this context, by positioning itself as a supporter of Lebanese sovereignty and stability, Turkiye aims to strengthen its regional posture and send a significant message to the US and Israel’s other allies to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

In the end, although Ankara has maintained a diplomatic tone so far, a significant Israeli escalation of its offensive in Lebanon could alter the situation. Can Turkiye, given its historical responsibilities, help prevent further conflict in the region just by maintaining a presence, all while ensuring the safety of its troops and avoiding direct involvement in the war?

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz