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Zaid M. Belbagi

September 19, 2024 14:24

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian last week traveled to Baghdad on his first official foreign visit. Pezeshkian and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani discussed bilateral cooperation on economic and security matters. The two leaders signed 14 memorandums of understanding, including on key infrastructure projects such as the Shalamcheh-Basra railway line and the development of border industrial zones in Wasit, Maysan and Basra governorates in Iraq. They also agreed to strengthen collaborative efforts to combat cross-border threats. They took a unified stand against the war in Gaza, highlighting the significant threat it posed to Middle Eastern stability and emphasizing the need for a collective regional response to de-escalate tensions.

Bilateral relations between Iraq and Iran have evolved from hostility to tolerance to cooperation over the decades. Having been involved in the nearly decade-long Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s, the two countries have developed a synergistic relationship based on border security, energy trade and economic cooperation. Moreover, Iran holds cultural, religious and strategic influence over Iraq’s majority Shiite population. Iran’s proximity and historical ties to Iraq’s Shiites mean that Tehran remains a key player in Iraqi domestic affairs.

Pezeshkian’s attempt to secure ties with Iraq is in line with similar efforts by his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. During Raisi’s tenure, Iran and Iraq strengthened their already close ties. He prioritized cooperation with Iraq to alleviate the impact of international sanctions, especially focusing on energy relations. Iran supplied Iraq with gas, covering nearly 30 percent of the latter’s electricity needs, despite Iraq’s mounting debt for these energy imports. Border security was a key concern for both nations, with agreements reached to prevent cross-border insurgent activities. Raisi viewed Iraq as a vital partner in regional geopolitics, particularly in opposing the US military presence in the region and bolstering non-oil trade to support both economies under the pressure of sanctions.

Their growing cooperation comes as Iraq has been navigating a delicate balance between its relationships with both the US and Iran. This is essential to maintaining Iraq’s security, stability and sovereignty amid competing pressures from the two geopolitical rivals. The US still has more than 2,000 troops in Iraq to assist in the fight against Daesh, train the Iraqi armed forces and rebuild the country’s defense capabilities after years of conflict. At the same time, Iran wields influence over many Shiite militias in Iraq, particularly the Popular Mobilization Units, which were key to the combating of Daesh.

Bilateral relations between Iraq and Iran have evolved from hostility to tolerance to cooperation over the decades

 

For Al-Sudani, who has so far not favored one partner to the detriment of the other, this will be a test of his strength as a leader. Having come to power nearly two years ago, Al-Sudani was faced with the challenging task of uniting a nation divided not only by differing domestic interests but also foreign support. He has successfully worked toward carving out a space for Iraq in regional politics and the broader Arab world. Iraq has hosted the annual Baghdad Summit under his aegis and the capital is also set to host the 2025 Arab League Summit. Al-Sudani has also unequivocally expressed Iraq’s intention to maintain diplomatic relations with both Washington and Tehran.

This dynamic has nonetheless been complicated since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. The continued US support for Israel amid the latter’s ongoing hostilities in the Strip is contrasted by the Iraqi and Iranian condemnation of Israeli actions and calls for an end to the war. As the hostilities have expanded into a regional escalation, Iran has been drawn into the war not only through the actions of its proxies in Yemen and Lebanon, but notably also as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.

This has made Iraq’s balancing act significantly more challenging, given the three parties’ differing stances on Gaza. Iraq’s own location bordering Iran may make it vulnerable to any further escalations. Pezeshkian’s visit was thus also an exercise in securing Iraq’s strategic cooperation as the regional scope of the Gaza war continues to expand.

Al-Sudani has also unequivocally expressed Iraq’s intention to maintain diplomatic relations with both the US and Iran

Zaid M. Belbagi

Despite signs of progress, the relationship between Iraq and Iran is not without its challenges. A long-standing source of tension between the two Gulf neighbors has been the presence of Iranian Kurdish separatist groups in Iraq who, the Iranian state alleges, played a role in the 2022 nationwide protests against the mandatory use of the hijab. Iranian authorities have demanded the extradition of more than 100 of these separatists. Pezeshkian’s time in Iraq included a visit to Irbil to meet Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.

Pezeshkian is of Azerbaijani ethnicity and has claimed he will make greater efforts toward the political inclusion of ethnic minorities. However, critics question how successful he could be in this endeavor, given the decisive role played by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. It remains to be seen whether Pezeshkian will be able to balance the representation of ethnic minorities with Iran-Iraq cooperation to maintain Iran’s territorial integrity and national security.

While Pezeshkian’s choice for his first official visit might appear to be a continuation of Iran’s favorable stance toward Iraq, this may also indicate a new era in Tehran’s relations with the West and particularly the US. A self-proclaimed reformist, Pezeshkian has made clear his intention to mend ties with the US, as well as Iran’s regional neighbors. Iraq is a strategic actor in this process, given the Gulf state’s ongoing cooperation with the US, its geostrategic location, its key role in the global oil market and its ability to mediate between the West and Iran.

For Iraq, this is part of its effort to balance the US-Iran bilateral competition on its territory. Securing ties with Iran is also crucial for the ongoing post-conflict rebuilding in Iraq, with pro-Iranian militias being influential regarding the degree of stability in the country. At any rate, a successful balancing act would also reaffirm Al-Sudani’s image as a key interlocutor in the Middle East, in line with his ability so far to remain neutral in major global conflicts.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council region. X: @Moulay_Zaid