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After weeks of thunderstorms in the eastern Mediterranean, the rain finally seems to have cooled the troubled situation in the region. The conflicting parties, namely Turkey and Greece, have been playing hardball for some time. However, the latest developments and rhetoric from both sides indicate that common sense is likely to triumph, raising hopes for the start of a new era.
Ankara and Athens have a history of falling out and making up, and there have been many ups and downs in their complicated relationship. In addition to their dispute on Cyprus, which goes back more than four decades, and the row over the Aegean Sea continental shelf, these two NATO partners have also come face-to-face over maritime territorial rights in the eastern Mediterranean. As for how the conflicts have become internationalized in recent years, the row in the eastern Mediterranean includes several other states due to clashes with their own national interests. While beneath the warm waters of the eastern Mediterranean there is a search for gas reserves, on the surface there is a multi-dimensional proxy war.
An EU summit is scheduled to be held next week. The bloc will discuss imposing sanctions on Turkey over its search for energy in waters claimed by Cyprus and Greece. However, significant developments have taken place this week that are likely to defuse tensions. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in a live interview on CNN Turk on Wednesday evening that more moderate messages have started to come from Greece on the issue of the eastern Mediterranean. He said: “Greece started to give a more positive message, taking the opportunity of the return of the (Turkish seismic exploration vessel) Oruc Reis to Antalya Port to replenish supplies and for maintenance.” Cavusoglu emphasized that, instead of expecting more from Turkey, Greece can turn this period into an opportunity by taking positive steps. “We say that Greece should not miss this opportunity, which it did by signing an agreement with Egypt before,” he added.
In the top diplomat’s interview, there was an interesting message regarding Egypt, as Cavusoglu said that Cairo did not violate the Turkish continental shelf while making an agreement with Greece and Cyprus. Also, a columnist from Hurriyet newspaper stated that Turkey was in backstage talks with Egypt aiming at a deal on maritime borders.
On Tuesday, an article written by Cavusoglu was published by the Greek newspaper Kathimerini. In it, the Turkish foreign minister threw the ball into the Greek court, saying: “What we do today will define not only today but also tomorrow and you know all too well that Turkey can go whichever way Greece chooses. The choice is in fact not that of Turkey nor France nor anyone else for that matter but of the esteemed leaders and people of Greece.”
Turkey has been disturbed by the involvement of some outside actors in its crisis with Greece. French President Emmanuel Macron, who opposes Turkey in Libya, has taken a stand behind Greece, while NATO ally the US did not hide its sympathies toward the Greek side. Washington this month decided to relax part of its 33-year-old arms embargo on Cyprus, allowing it to buy American non-lethal defense equipment. Ankara strongly condemned the move and threatened to take counter-steps if the US did not reconsider. Washington has become increasingly concerned about Moscow’s expanding Mediterranean presence and so aims to limit Russian naval access to the island with this decision.

Significant developments have taken place this week that are likely to defuse tensions.

Sinem Cengiz

Moscow has vested interests in Syria and Libya, and the country’s leader Vladimir Putin is tightening his grip on the sea, which he considers to be crucial to Russian naval interests. Turkey, which cooperates with Russia in Syria, is now progressing in Libya. In his CNN Turk interview, Cavusoglu stated that Turkey and Russia inched closer to a deal on a cease-fire and political process in Libya during their latest meetings in Ankara.
Meanwhile, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj, who is supported by Ankara, announced his intention to step down by the end of October in a speech delivered on state television on Wednesday. “I declare my sincere desire to hand over my duties to the next executive authority no later than the end of October,” he said. This is an important development regarding how the situation in Libya will be shaped. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking to the press after Friday prayer, stated that he was saddened by Al-Sarraj's resignation. His statement sounded as if Ankara had been caught off guard by the move. "This week we may enter talks with the Libyan government over this issue," he said.
Any development in Libya is likely to influence Turkey’s relations with the EU, its position in the eastern Mediterranean, and its cooperation with Russia in Syria. Thus, the layers of multinational complexity in the eastern Mediterranean are vulnerable to any development that could trigger a chain reaction.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz