It’s not too late to overcome our lack of preparedness
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Last fall, 16 leaders from governments, businesses and international organizations gathered in New York to conduct a to a hypothetical global health emergency. We looked at the challenges that could arise in such a scenario, which was increasingly likely given the world has about 200 epidemic events per year. We could not know the exercise would become reality just months later — but the conclusion was sobering: If it did, the global community was woefully .
A few months later, the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in China. By the end of January, more than 500 people had been infected and Wuhan, the origin of the outbreak, had been placed under quarantine. Now, COVID-19 has spread internationally and affected more than 90,000 people, leading to more than 3,000 deaths. The OECD expects it will also cause significant : Global economic growth could slow by 1.5 percent, putting the world in a technical recession.
We couldn’t have predicted this specific outbreak. But something similar was bound to happen and, if you had asked us during the exercise in New York if we were ready for a global health emergency, we would have said “no.” The simulation and our previous work had shown there was a lot more to be done to enable public-private cooperation in the face of such a threat. But there is a silver lining: It’s not too late to apply the lessons we learned in the fall. What can we do to mobilize a better global response?
First, we must look beyond the immediate health impact of the COVID-19 virus and come up with a systemic response. Our research and analysis have shown global health threats pose a and . Nothing is more important than protecting and saving lives. But we must also consider the economic and social consequences of outbreaks.
COVID-19 has illustrated again that outbreaks can affect , , , travel systems, workforces and . The of the virus has been felt , and the overall socioeconomic impacts are still being realized. We have prioritized systems to respond to health threats, but we haven’t given nearly enough thought to managing the effects on people’s livelihoods. Now is the time to change that.
Consider how have evolved over time. Two hundred years ago, fire departments in the UK focused just on responding to the fires themselves. Until someone finally said: It’s not enough to just put the fire out, you must do so in a way that supports the people most affected and the impact on their community. Similarly, we must respond to global health threats in a systematic way that addresses the related economic and social disruptions.
Second, we must act on the facts, not on fear. The simulation showed the importance of elevating facts and empowering people to make evidence-based decisions. As a global community, we know the “infodemic” spreads even faster than the virus itself. But we haven’t done enough to cultivate an environment for business leaders, health ministers, politicians or the general public to access the truth and act on it.
In a global health emergency, all of us are only as strong as our weakest link
Borge Brende and Ryan Morhard
Right now, fear is still winning the day, and “false news” spreads faster than official World Health Organization (WHO) and other authorities’ information. Many people are continuing to make the most risk-averse, and often unsubstantiated, decisions — hoarding face masks, closing borders or racially stigmatizing Asians, for example. It leads to a race to the bottom. We must instead make it easier for people to access reliable information and feel confident in making decisions about their organizations and themselves.
The WHO set the tone with its daily press briefings and its accessible website with information for citizens, companies and governments. It has even opened a TikTok channel. Media outlets such as Dagens Nyheter in Sweden, The Local in wider Europe, and the Seattle Times in the US are following its lead, opening their coverage for all and basing it on solid research, not online rumors. It’s a laudable response that deserves to be replicated elsewhere.
Third, we must engage decision-makers in the private sector. Governments mostly focus their communication directly to the general public. But the private sector and its leadership are a crucial piece of the puzzle too. First, they can help share information, as they employ well over half the workforce in many economies. Second, they can help limit the economic consequences if they are properly informed and kept abreast by the health and public authorities.
Companies know they can’t afford to put their heads down and hope they get it right by themselves. But they have been largely left out of crisis responses in the past, even though they are critical. For example, the effort to ensure all health care workers in the world have enough supplies requires a coordinated approach. The same is true for navigating travel and workplace policies. These challenges can’t be overcome without trust, information-sharing and engaged decision-makers.
The World Economic Forum is doing its part. In response to COVID-19, it is calling for interaction among chief executives, the WHO and other top experts. The goal is to ensure that companies have continuous access to trusted information and analysis to make decisions, and that private-sector assets and capabilities are mobilized to support the global response.
Finally, we must all come together to collaborate. It’s in vogue these days to ask what the point is of international institutions, or strong public response systems. This virus makes that clear: In a global health emergency, all of us are only as strong as our weakest link, whether we represent a company or an economy or a health system. COVID-19 presents a true test to see how we can come together collectively to mitigate risk and disruption in this new environment.
Many of us tend to believe that outbreaks happen in some other place, and it’s the work of others to keep them there. Not this one. COVID-19 is the whole world’s problem and the most serious threat to global health security in decades. If we don’t come together to ensure that the whole world is protected, we’ll never be protected ourselves. Together, as an informed and equipped international community, we have an opportunity to make a difference.
We can’t afford to act alone. If we do act together, the impact of this crisis on health, as well as social and economic life, can be mitigated, and we can become more resilient to respond to future risks.
• Borge Brende is the President of the World Economic Forum.
• Ryan Morhard leads the World Economic Forum’s Global Health Security activities.