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- Trump appears to be seeking a more nuanced relationship with the country that both Republicans and Democrats have come to see as the gravest foreign policy challenge to the US
WASHINGTON: On the campaign trail last year, President Donald Trump talked tough about imposing tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese goods and threatened to renew the trade war with China that he launched during his first term.
But now that he鈥檚 back in the White House, Trump appears to be seeking a more nuanced relationship with the country that both Republicans and Democrats have come to see as the gravest foreign policy challenge to the US China is also a major trading partner and an economic powerhouse, and it has one of the world鈥檚 largest military forces.
鈥淲e look forward to doing very well with China and getting along with China,鈥� Trump said Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in comments that suggested Beijing could help end the war in Ukraine and reduce nuclear arms.
As he moves forward with plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1, Trump has not set a firm date for China. He鈥檚 only repeated his plan for a much lower 10 percent tax on Chinese imports in retaliation for China鈥檚 production of chemicals used in fentanyl. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump was 鈥渧ery much still considering鈥� raising tariffs on China on Feb. 1.
Trump, who spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping days before taking office, seems to be showing restraint and bowing to a more complicated reality than he described while running for office. Speaking of potential tariffs on China in a recent Fox News interview, he said: 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want them, and I鈥檇 rather not have to use it.鈥�
Liu Yawei, senior adviser on China at the Carter Center in Atlanta, said Trump has become 鈥渕ore pragmatic.鈥�
鈥淭he signaling, at least from the election to the inauguration, seems to be more positive than has been expected before,鈥� Liu said. 鈥淗opefully, this positive dynamic can be preserved and continued. Being more pragmatic, less ideological will be good for everyone.鈥�
A Chinese expert on American foreign policy acknowledged that there are many 鈥渦ncertainties and unknowns about the future鈥� of US-China relations. But Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, also said Trump鈥檚 recent change in tone offers 鈥渆ncouraging signals.鈥�
In his first term, warm relations were followed by a trade war
When Trump first became president in 2017, Xi and Trump got off to a good start. Xi was invited to Trump鈥檚 Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. A few months later, he treated Trump to a personal tour of the Palace Museum in the heart of Beijing, only to see Trump launch the trade war the following year.
The US-China relationship soured further over the COVID-19 pandemic, and it hardly improved during President Joe Biden鈥檚 administration, which saw a controversial visit to the self-governing island of Taiwan by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a Chinese spy balloon aloft over US territory.
Biden kept Trump鈥檚 tariffs on Chinese goods and intensified the economic and technological rivalry with export controls, investment curbs and alliance building.
Now it will be up to Trump鈥檚 top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to help chart a new path for the second term.
During his confirmation hearing, Rubio said China has 鈥渓ied, cheated, hacked and stolen鈥� its way to global superpower status 鈥渁t our expense.鈥� He called China 鈥渢he most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.鈥�
Hours after he was sworn in, Rubio met foreign ministers from Australia, Japan and India, sending signals that he would continue to work with the same group of countries that Biden elevated to blunt China鈥檚 expanding influence and aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yet Rubio, who was twice sanctioned by Beijing and is known for his hawkish views on the Chinese Communist Party, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the US should engage with China because 鈥渋t鈥檚 in the interest of global peace and stability.鈥�
In a Friday phone call, China鈥檚 veteran foreign minister issued a veiled warning to Rubio, telling him to behave. Wang Yi conveyed the message in their first conversation since Rubio鈥檚 confirmation.
鈥淚 hope you will act accordingly,鈥� Wang told Rubio, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement that included a Chinese phrase typically used by a teacher or a boss warning a student or employee to be responsible for their actions. Rubio agreed to manage bilateral relations in a 鈥渕ature and prudent鈥� way, the ministry said.
Members of Congress have noted Trump鈥檚 seemingly softer attitude toward Beijing.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro, a Democrat from Connecticut, wants to ensure 鈥渢hat Trump does not let China off too easy.鈥� She urged the president to act now on measures that have won broad bipartisan support, including closing a tariff loophole on low-value packages, reviewing outbound investments and setting up a domestic industrial policy agenda.
Beijing seeks opportunities and stays ready to play tough
Beijing is seeking opportunities to create more breathing room in its relations with a US president known for his transactional style. Chinese leaders are betting on engaging with Trump directly when his Cabinet members and advisers appear to hold clashing views.
Trump 鈥渋s the most important person above all those different voices, and he can at least set the tone of future policy,鈥� Da said.
The Tsinghua professor expects Trump and Xi to meet at some point. Effective communication channels will be crucial, Da said, to keep differences from spiraling out of control, as they did in Trump鈥檚 first term.
鈥淭he two presidents can have a good starting point. That鈥檚 very important,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut then we need to set up some mechanisms to let the cabinet-level members talk to each other.鈥�
That may explain Beijing鈥檚 friendly overture at the start of the second Trump administration. In response to Trump鈥檚 inauguration invitation, Xi sent a special representative.
Beijing has also signaled a willingness to be flexible on the future of TikTok, which Trump sought to ban during his first administration. But he has now come to the social media app鈥檚 rescue, offering more time for its Chinese-based parent company to sell and downplaying TikTok鈥檚 national security risks.
After Trump said he preferred not to use tariffs on China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry echoed that trade and economic cooperation between the two countries are mutually beneficial.
But Beijing is also ready to play tough, if necessary, after learning a lesson from Trump鈥檚 first term.
Over the past several years, Beijing has adopted laws and rules that allow it to retaliate quickly and forcefully to any hostile act from the US In its toolbox are tariffs, import curbs, export controls, sanctions, measures to limit companies from doing business in China and regulatory reviews aimed at inflicting pain on American businesses and the US economy.
Miles Yu, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, said Trump is now 鈥渕ore nuanced, and more focused, toward China.鈥�
鈥淗e鈥檚 keeping his eyes on the prize, which is to maintain US supremacy without risking open and avoidable confrontation with China, while perfectly willing to walk away from the negotiation table and play the hardball,鈥� Yu said.