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Africa, a continent abundant in natural resources and human capital, should theoretically be fertile ground for economic dynamism. Yet it grapples with profound challenges that perpetuate what has come to be known as the “Africa Gap.”
This economic disparity between Africa and the rest of the world is reflected in metrics, such as purchasing power parity and gross domestic product per capita, both of which lag significantly behind other regions.
Despite making remarkable strides, and a burgeoning youth population with increasing political agency, Africa’s economies have not experienced the kind of transformative growth needed to close this gap.
The effects are daunting: By 2030, Africans are expected to constitute more than 80 percent of the world’s poor. The urgent need to address this growing inequality is amplified by the potential socioeconomic unrest and climate vulnerabilities that accompany such stagnation.
Africa’s staggering population increase presents an unparalleled opportunity for economic acceleration, if harnessed effectively. By 2070, the population of the continent is expected to double once more, solidifying its status as home to a significant proportion of the global population.
This burgeoning demographic, predominantly young and increasingly educated, holds the potential to drive transformative economic growth. For instance, average life expectancy has increased from 41 to 64 years since 1960, and university attendance has risen nine-fold since the 1970s.
Yet this demographic dividend remains at risk of being squandered if economies fail to evolve in tandem. Currently, Africa’s GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity, is merely a quarter of the global average, and the region faces a growing economic disparity with East Asia, where average incomes are seven times higher.
The continent must therefore capitalize on its youthful demographic, which requires the creation of robust, dynamic private sectors and the implementation of effective governance to usher in an era of entrepreneurial vigor and reform.
At a foundational level, however, African economies have historically leaned heavily on statist models characterized by protectionist barriers and an overreliance on commodities exports, which has hindered growth and made them acutely vulnerable to global price shocks.
For example, the heavy dependence on oil in countries such as Nigeria and Angola has led to punishing economic vulnerability, as a sudden fall in oil prices can cause significant fiscal deficits and economic instability.
Meanwhile, although it accounts for a mere 2 percent of global economic activity, sub-Saharan Africa is home to a staggering 14 percent of the world’s population, highlighting a severe imbalance and inefficiency within its economies. Trade patterns in the region further illustrate these challenges, with intraregional trade accounting for a paltry 17 percent of total trade, compared with 69 percent in Europe.
Without a shift away from these entrenched and stultifying economic strategies, the promises of resilience and equitable growth will remain out of reach.
Additionally, infrastructure development must form part of a foundational strategy for bridging the economic divide between Africa and the rest of the world, yet it must be approached without the entanglements of crippling debt or onerous conditions.
For too long, African nations have struggled under the burden of inadequate roads, unreliable power supplies, and limited technological access. The power of infrastructure to ignite economic transformation can be seen in the rapid ascent of China, where strategic investment in transport, energy, and telecommunications fueled unprecedented growth and lifted millions out of poverty.
The African Continental Free Trade Area envisions a unified market to bolster intra-African trade.
Hafed Al-Ghwell
Africa stands at a similar threshold; by prioritizing robust infrastructure, the continent can unlock vast entrepreneurial energy, stimulate rural and urban commerce, and create resilient, interconnected economies. Such development requires a focus on partnerships that respect African agency, where investments are aligned with local priorities and bolster, rather than bind, futures.
For Africa to harness its vast potential and achieve rapid growth, then political stability, effective governance and technocratic leadership are paramount. The persistent issues of corruption and mismanagement have consistently hindered development by diverting essential resources from critical projects and social services.
For instance, countries such as Botswana have shown how sound governance and political stability can attract foreign investment and spur economic prosperity. In contrast, nations marred by political tumult and opaque governance face stagnation. By promoting the principles of transparency and accountability, the continent can not only build trust but also ensure that scarce resources are efficiently allocated to key priorities.
Next, education and skills development are also essential requirements to help bridge the “Africa Gap” and harness this demographic dividend. Children in Africa are five times less likely to learn basic literacy and numeracy skills compared with their global counterparts, which means millions are ill-prepared for a modern economy.
This educational shortfall directly impairs economic productivity and innovation. The disparity in foundational education, for example, has hampered the employability and entrepreneurial potential of African youth, particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas where access to quality education remains severely limited.
Transformative initiatives, such as the African Union’s youth-led manifesto and the World Bank’s various educational programs, aim to reimagine education by focusing on inclusive, equitable, and skills-oriented learning. These efforts are designed to address the immediate needs of young people and align their capabilities with the evolving demands of the 21st-century job market.
Indeed, analogous to the transformative impact of India’s focus on engineering and technical education that fueled its IT sector boom, Africa’s economic resurgence hinges on strategic investment in, and the redesign of, educational systems to create a skilled and innovative workforce.
Lastly, regional integration, an elusive yet must-achieve milestone for the continent, stands as the keystone in efforts to bridge the “Africa Gap.” The African Continental Free Trade Area, which has been ratified by 48 out of 55 member states, envisions a unified market to bolster intra-African trade, challenge economic dependency, and dismantle the historic balkanization of the continent’s economies. As more states align with the organization’s tariff-reduction schedules, a transformative landscape with robust intra-African supply chains can emerge.
Within the East African Community, the example set by Kenya, which unilaterally liberalized rules on imports from its neighbors, demonstrates a pathway for regional heavyweights such as Nigeria and South Africa to spur similar growth by adopting more liberal import regimes. As a consequence of such a move, the continent’s collective bargaining power on the global stage could significantly strengthen, mitigating dependency on external markets while amplifying Africa’s economic sovereignty.
Closing the “Africa Gap” necessitates a multifaceted approach that prioritizes growth, free-market principles, infrastructure development, education, political stability, environmental sustainability, and regional cooperation.
By adopting policies that encourage economic freedom and innovation, Africa can tap into its potential, contributing not only to its own prosperity but to global economic stability and environmental sustainability.
As the continent stands on the precipice of change, the path to an economic renaissance is clear: embrace growth as the engine to drive forward a better collective future.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.
X: @HafedAlGhwell