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Trump expected to bring peace to Ukraine, though picture unclear on Middle East: WEF panel

Trump expected to bring peace to Ukraine, though picture unclear on Middle East: WEF panel
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A panel of political analysts and experts shared their “early thoughts” on Donald Trump’s actions on his first day back in office. (Screenshot)
Trump expected to bring peace to Ukraine, though picture unclear on Middle East: WEF panel
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Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, predicted the war in Ukraine would end within the next six months. (Screenshot)
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Updated 21 January 2025

Trump expected to bring peace to Ukraine, though picture unclear on Middle East: WEF panel

Trump expected to bring peace to Ukraine, though picture unclear on Middle East: WEF panel
  • Expert predicts war in Ukraine would end within the next six months
  • Despite bringing a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump’s presidency does not signal guaranteed peace in Palestine, warn analysts

DUBAI: Donald Trump’s US presidency will likely bring peace in Ukraine even if the future of the Middle East remains unclear, panelists at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos said on Tuesday.

The annual meetings, which got into full swing on Tuesday, comes a day after Trump was sworn in for his second term as the 47th US president, marking perhaps the greatest political comeback in American history.

In one of the earliest sessions, a panel of political analysts and experts shared their “early thoughts” on Trump’s actions on his first day back in office as speculation rises about the implications of his presidency on the domestic and international fronts.

Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, predicted the war in Ukraine would end within the next six months.

“If you look at [Trump’s] inaugural speech and the press conference, he wants to be not only a deal maker, but an international deal maker who’s a peacemaker,” said Allison, adding the new president would leverage his power to strike a deal with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky or starve Kyiv of Washington’s military aid.

However, prospects of peace seem unclear in the Middle East, where a major paradigm shift took place last year with the decline of Iran and its proxies, as well as the new governments that rose to power in Syria and Lebanon.

Trump took credit for implementing a fragile ceasefire in Gaza after 14 months of negotiations.

“You can see a paradigm shift without peace. Israel has had a strategic problem since the 1940s (in) that it wins wars but cannot get to a stable peaceful arrangement. And I think that that remains the case,” said Walter Mead, Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute.

He noted the decline of the “Iranian challenge” as the only factor destabilizing the Middle East was no guarantee of lasting peace in the Middle East.

“Peace in the Middle East perhaps remains a beautiful but maybe distant dream,” warned Mead.

Despite bringing a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump’s presidency does not signal guaranteed peace in Palestine given his desire to expand the Abraham Accords and resume pressure on Tehran.

Panelists warned of the consequences of Trump’s return to power.

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, warned against treating Trump as “just another president” given his victory despite impeachments and criminal indictments.

“It’s a very unusual time to have an individual that is in no way concerned about, or constrained by, rule of law,” said Bremmer, referring to the global power that Trump has amassed in light of America’s post-COVID-19 economic growth and tech dominance, combined with the weakening of Washington’s adversaries like China, Russia and Iran.

“To understand what Trump will do is to understand who pays him.”

In his first two days in office, Trump has already taken major decisions that include withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate change for the second time.

Although panelists signaled optimism towards his domestic economic policies, they disagreed on Washington’s projected relationship with China during his tenure.

“I think that we are heading towards a trade war and towards a more strategic decoupling of the economies. One reason for that is because Trump isn’t just focusing on tariffs on China, but he’s also focusing on third countries where there are pass-throughs to the US,” said Bremmer.

Trump unexpectedly held off tariffs on China on his first day back at the White House and delayed the ban on short video app TikTok. But in an unprecedented move he floated the possibility of a joint venture, saying he was seeking a 50-50 partnership between Washington and Chinese owner ByteDance.

“Getting to a deal with China will require a level of execution implementation that’s far more complicated across the Trump administration, not to mention some support from the GOP and Congress, and we’re nowhere close to that,” said Bremmer.

However, Allison predicted positive relations between both economic powers as their leaders enjoy a “very right relationship” and could find common areas of cooperation, including ending the war in Ukraine.

He added: “In terms of their interests, while fundamentally in the long run there is rivalry of a rising and ruling power, but if I look at the agency and the opportunities for agency here, doing a deal to conclude a war in Ukraine is not hard for [Xi Jinping] to be part of.”

World leaders, business titans, and policymakers gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the WEF’s 55th annual meeting, which runs until Jan. 24.

This year’s conference explores ways to tackle shared challenges like climate change, technology, and economic inequality through global collaboration.


Iraq parliament adopts revised bill after outcry over underage marriage

Iraq parliament adopts revised bill after outcry over underage marriage
Updated 12 sec ago

Iraq parliament adopts revised bill after outcry over underage marriage

Iraq parliament adopts revised bill after outcry over underage marriage
The amendment to the 1959 Personal Status Law allows people to choose between religious or civil regulations for family matters
An earlier version of the amendments faced a backlash from feminists and civil society groups

BAGHDAD: Iraq’s parliament passed into law on Tuesday a revised bill that had sparked outrage over fears it rolled back women’s rights and permitted underage marriage.
The parliament said on its website that it had adopted “the proposal to amend the Personal Status Law,” as well as “the second amendment of the general amnesty law.”
The amendment to the 1959 Personal Status Law allows people to choose between religious or civil regulations for family matters such as marriage, inheritance, divorce and child custody.
An earlier version of the amendments faced a backlash from feminists and civil society groups over fears it would lower the minimum age for Muslim girls to marry to as young as nine years old.
But a revised version reinstated clauses of the old law that set the age of marriage at 18 — or 15 with the consent of legal guardians and a judge, MP Mohamed Anouz told AFP.
Under the new amendment, couples can opt for Shiite Muslim or Sunni Muslim rules, and clerics and lawyers will have four months to establish community-specific regulations.
In October, Amnesty International warned the amendments could strip women and girls of protections regarding divorce and inheritance.
The parliament also passed a general amnesty law that had sparked disagreements between political blocs. The law grants retrials to those convicted of a number of crimes.
The Taqadom party, the most influential Sunni bloc, welcomed the adoption of the amnesty law.
Iraq’s Sunni community has been the main proponent of revisiting the law, pushing for it to include a full review of all convictions on terror charges.
The law excludes convictions for “terrorist crimes” that resulted in the death of a person or “permanent disability,” or that involved fighting the Iraqi security forces or “sabotage of institutions,” according to Anouz.
But it does allow the judiciary to reopen investigations and start new trials for those who say they confessed “under torture” or were convicted based on “information provided by a secret informer,” Anouz explained.
In recent years, Iraqi courts have ordered hundreds of executions in terror cases, proceedings that rights groups say often lack due process or in which confessions suspected to have been extracted through torture are admissible.
In a country plagued by endemic corruption, those accused of embezzling public funds can also benefit from the amnesty law if they repay the stolen money, Anouz said.
A previous 2016 amnesty reportedly covered 150,000 people.
The new amnesty law excludes rape, incest and human trafficking.
The laws passed Tuesday, each endorsed by the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish communities, were adopted in one package, with political parties agreeing to avoid any blockage.
But several lawmakers denounced irregularities in the voting process, with some threatening to go to court to have Tuesday’s session invalidated.
MP Nour Nafe claimed the parliament passed the personal status law and the general amnesty “without a vote.”
The MPs “did not raise their hands,” she said on X, adding that some lawmakers had left the room in response to the “farce.”

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says
Updated 21 January 2025

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says

Israel’s failure to commit to full withdrawal contradicts promises made to Lebanon, Aoun says
  • Aoun told Spanish Def Min Margarita Robles that Israel’s failure to commit to the withdrawal contradicts the promises made to Lebanon during the negotiations preceding the agreement
  • President praised the role of the Spanish battalion operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon and the exceptional efforts of UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro

BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday reaffirmed Lebanon’s adherence to “the completion of Israel’s withdrawal from the remaining occupied territories in the south within the 60-day deadline stipulated in the agreement reached on Nov. 27, 2024, which expires in four days.”

Aoun told Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles, during their meeting at the Presidential Palace, that “Israel’s failure to commit to the withdrawal contradicts the promises made to Lebanon during the negotiations preceding the agreement.”

This, he said, “perpetuates tension in the border villages, prevents establishing stability, delays the return of residents to their towns, and obstructs the reconstruction of what the Israeli enemy destroyed during its aggression against Lebanon.”

Aoun said he had sent several messages to force Israel to withdraw, receiving support from the international community, “which is expected to exert pressure in this regard.”

The president praised the role of “the Spanish battalion operating within the UNIFIL in southern Lebanon and the exceptional efforts of UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, as well as the complete coordination with army units deployed in the international operations area.”

The Spanish minister underlined her country’s “support for the role Aoun is playing in Lebanon’s recovery after the difficult circumstances it has faced.”

She said: “Spain will stand by Lebanon and its people and will continue its work within the international forces,” emphasizing “the necessity of achieving the Israeli withdrawal on time to preserve stability in the south and the progress made so far.”

Robles also highlighted “Spain's collaboration with the EU to assist Lebanon in all fields.”

Meanwhile, Aoun emphasized the importance of rejecting sectarianism.

During a meeting with Sheikh Ali Qaddour, head of the Alawite Islamic Council, who came to congratulate the president, Aoun said: “Lebanon comprises various sects, and this constitutes its wealth. Each sect has its own elites, and it is essential for all groups to have representation in the government, parliament, and public administrations, similar to the representation found within the army.”

Aoun said he hoped to “form a government as soon as possible so that we can create political, economic and security stability so that citizens can live in dignity and not just in luxury.”

Aoun said: “We are at a crossroads; we can either take advantage of the current situation and rise above the trivialities of sectarian, confessional, and political matters, or we may find ourselves in a different place where the fault lies not with others, but with us for failing to fulfill our responsibilities.”

Nawaf Salam, the designated prime minister, is expected to visit Aoun to present the draft list of proposed names for the government.

Salam insists the Cabinet should consist of non-partisan and non-parliamentary figures, comprising 24 ministers.

Aoun is seeking the formation of the government before the deadline for the Israeli withdrawal, so that the new government can address the expected challenges.

Israeli forces carried out more demolition operations in the border area and bulldozed roads linking the inner neighborhoods in the town of Maroun Al-Ras.

Israeli media reported that preparations are ongoing along the border with Lebanon for the establishment of new positions for the Israeli army.

Construction teams are working to set up these new sites, which will primarily be situated between the settlements and the border fence.


After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film
Updated 21 January 2025

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film

After Gaza row, Berlin festival to screen Israeli hostage film
  • The Berlin awards ceremony last year saw several filmmakers criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza
  • Palestinian filmmaker Basel Adra said the local population was being “massacred” by Israel, to applause from the audience

BERLIN: The Berlin Film Festival is set to screen a documentary about an Israeli actor taken hostage by Hamas, organizers said Tuesday, as it looks to move on from a row about alleged anti-Semitism at last year’s edition.
The documentary called “A Letter to David” by Israeli director Tom Shoval recalls his friendship and work with David Cunio who was abducted from his home in a Kibbutz on October 7, 2023.aThe film is a “tender and deeply personal lament” from Shoval, programming co-director Michael Stutz told reporters at a press conference ahead of the February 13-23 festival.
Cunio’s fate remains unknown, with hopes raised by a recent ceasefire agreement that will see Hamas return its captives and Israel release Palestinian prisoners from jails.
The Berlin awards ceremony last year saw several filmmakers criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which has now killed around 47,000 people and wounded 110,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
US filmmaker Ben Russell, wearing a Palestinian scarf, accused Israel of committing “genocide” with its bombardment of the densely populated territory.
Palestinian filmmaker Basel Adra said the local population was being “massacred” by Israel, to applause from the audience.
A spokeswoman for the German government, a staunch ally of Israel, said it was “unacceptable” that the Hamas attack on Israel which triggered the war had not been mentioned at the ceremony.
Berlin’s mayor Kai Wegner called the remarks “unacceptable” and said that there was “no place for anti-Semitism in Berlin.”
Wegner also said that he expected new festival director Tricia Tuttle to “ensure such incidents do not happen again.”
Tuttle said last month that the furor had put some film directors off the festival because of free speech concerns.
“Lots of filmmakers from Arab countries have approached us as well over the last weeks, just to make sure the festival is a space for open dialogue and discourse,” she added on Tuesday.
“Where we can, we like to have individual conversations, and we’d encourage filmmakers to come to us to talk to us about this.”
South Korean director Bong Joon-ho, famed for his 2019 prize-winner “Parasite,” is set to present his new film “Mickey 17” out of competition in Berlin.
The festival has also announced that it will give a lifetime achievement award to British actor Tilda Swinton, who has collaborated with Bong in the past.
Tuttle unveiled the full line up of films for its main competition, which includes work from American director Richard Linklater, South Korea’s Hong Sangsoo, Mexico’s Michel Franco and Radu Jude from Romania.
Linklater is returning for the first time since 2014 when he won a director’s silver bear, the second-highest award, for his epic “Boyhood” that was filmed over more than decade.


UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi
Updated 21 January 2025

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi

UAE’s president receives Afghanistan’s minister of interior in Abu Dhabi
  • Sirajuddin Haqqani commends UAE’s humanitarian assistance to Afghan people

LONDON: President of the UAE Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan received Afghanistan’s Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani on Tuesday at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi.

The parties discussed recent news in Afghanistan and ways to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in development.

They looked at efforts to support Afghanistan’s stability and promote prosperity for its people.

Haqqani praised the level of cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Kabul and commended the UAE’s humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, the Emirates News Agency reported.


Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce
Updated 21 January 2025

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce

Yemen’s Houthis say to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships during truce
  • “We have informed international shipping companies that our military operations will focus solely on vessels linked to” Israel during the truce, said a Houthi official
  • Their campaign has severely disrupted trade routes

SANAA: Yemen’s Houthi militants said Tuesday they would limit their Red Sea attacks to vessels linked to Israel during the ceasefire in the Gaza war.
The Houthis have been attacking shipping in the vital waterway in what they say is solidarity with the Palestinians since November 2023, weeks after Hamas carried out the deadliest attack in Israeli history.
“We have informed international shipping companies that our military operations will focus solely on vessels linked to” Israel during the truce, a Houthi official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the Houthis have also repeatedly launched missile and drone attacks on Israel since the war in Gaza began with Hamas’s October 7 attack.
Among the vessels targeted in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden were ones the militants believed were linked to Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom.
Their campaign has severely disrupted trade routes, prompting the United States and its allies to conduct strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
The Houthi official also said his movement would halt its attacks against Israeli-linked vessels once every phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was implemented.
The Israel-Hamas deal, announced last week by mediators Qatar and the United States, should see 33 Israeli hostages freed in exchange for around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners in an initial 42-day phase.
A second, unfinalized phase of the agreement should see negotiations for a permanent end to the war.
The third and final phase would deal with the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the remains of hostages who died in captivity.
On Sunday, the Houthis claimed an attack on an American aircraft carrier and warned of “consequences” for any retaliation during the ceasefire.
The US military, however, dismissed the attack claims as being part of a Houthi “disinformation campaign.”