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Anyone who has been observing the performance of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani will have noticed his determined efforts to shield his country from the negative repercussions of the rapidly evolving developments in the Middle East.
This is particularly evident after the successive losses sustained by the so-called Axis of Resistance led by Iran. This axis includes several armed Iraqi factions that pledge allegiance to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, some of which became active after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, launching drone and missile strikes against targets in Israel.
These actions were part of the “unity of fronts” policy in support of Gaza. However, the operations ceased following the assassination in September last year of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, the deaths of other high-ranking members of the group and US pressure on the Iraqi government.
Al-Sudani set about persuading his allies in the Coordination Framework to dissuade armed factions from attacking Israel, so as to spare Iraq from the possibility of military retaliation from Tel Aviv that might have devastating effects on Iraq’s fragile economy and infrastructure.
Against this backdrop, Al-Sudani welcomed last week’s agreement between Israel and Hamas for the cessation of military operations in Gaza and the exchange of prisoners and hostages between the two sides. He expressed hope that “the ceasefire agreement will be stable and not fragile, and that it will immediately allow the entry of food aid into Gaza.”
He added that “we succeeded in keeping our country out of the conflict zone,” which was his primary objective. Continuation of the war would mean further involvement of Iraqi armed factions in attacks on Israel, thereby increasing the risks to Iraqi security.
Baghdad has seen the destruction in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, the weakening of Iranian deterrence capabilities following the decline of its allies’ strength in the Middle East, and the superiority of Israeli intelligence capabilities.
Al-Sudani was candid in his comments during the interview, noting: “We have witnessed over more than a year a state of confusion in the region — the Red Sea, Lebanon, Syria and the mutual strikes — all of which have pushed the Middle East into a state of anxiety over the outbreak of a comprehensive war.”
This “state of confusion,” as Al-Sudani put it, prompted Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the highest religious authority for Shiites, to express his “regret over the failure of the international community and its institutions to impose solutions to stop the wars in Lebanon and Gaza, or at least shield civilians from the tragedies of aggression.”
The most significant aspect of Al-Sistani’s comments, however, was his clear and direct call for the fortification of Iraq domestically, including efforts to “prevent foreign interference in all its forms, uphold the rule of law, confine weapons to state control and combat corruption at all levels.” He stressed that Iraqis must “draw lessons from the experiences they have endured.”
Sources close to the religious authority in Najaf indicated that, despite Al-Sistani’s “deep sympathy for innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon, he seeks to spare Iraq the scourge of war and prevent the escalation of violence.” They noted that he “wants to prevent uncontrolled weapons and ensure that militias do not hold power, with the rule of law prevailing and weapons under the sole control of the state.”
They also said that “the Najaf religious authority does not want Iraq to be part of external regional alliances or a tool in the hands of Iran or other states.” Instead, “Iraq must be fortified during these politically and security-critical times.”

Baghdad is particularly concerned about a resurgence of Daesh following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

Hassan Al-Mustafa

Despite Al-Sudani’s support for the principle of confining weapons to state control, it appears his government is currently unable to implement this policy. This is due, in particular, to the fact that some of his allies within the Coordination Framework are themselves part of the militias in question.
Additionally, these armed groups maintain a parallel economy and wield significant social, financial and political power, which they are unwilling to relinquish without substantial concessions.
Meanwhile, some militias have attempted to circumvent Al-Sistani’s statements, seeking various alternative interpretations even though they fully understand what he really meant.
As such, many people believe the issue of armed militias could best be addressed through one of three solutions: an explicitly defined fatwa issued by Al-Sistani that prohibits the presence of weapons outside the control of the Iraqi state; direct instructions from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to its Iraqi allies to disband their factions and integrate with the Iraqi army; or strict measures and sanctions imposed by incoming US President Donald Trump that compel the factions to voluntarily integrate with state institutions to avoid significant losses. However, all these options carry considerable risks and not all factions will necessarily comply.
Understanding the complexity of the armed factions issue, Al-Sudani’s government has focused on neutralizing or freezing their activities for the time being. This effort coincides with active foreign diplomacy that aims to create a regional safety net that can protect Iraq from institutional collapse, the possibility of retaliatory strikes by Israel and terrorist attacks carried out by Daesh. Baghdad is particularly concerned about a resurgence of the terrorist organization following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria last month.
On Dec. 8, the day Syrian President Bashar Assad was toppled, Al-Sudani spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and they discussed “regional developments and efforts to achieve security and stability.” Ten days later, Al-Sudani visited ��������Ƶ and met the crown prince at his winter camp in AlUla. During their talks, they reportedly reviewed “aspects of bilateral relations and ways to strengthen them.”
Al-Sudani’s desire to enhance ties between Baghdad and Riyadh stems from his recognition of the diplomatic role played by ��������Ƶ at this critical time, as authorities in the Kingdom strive to preserve the security and stability of the Middle East and find practical solutions to its crises.
Additionally, Al-Sudani has sought to build good relations with the new leadership in Syria. On Dec. 26, a delegation led by Iraqi intelligence chief Hamid Al-Shatri visited Damascus and met Ahmad Al-Sharaa, the leader of the new Syrian administration.
Following this timely visit and its political and security implications, Al-Sudani said that “the deposed regime of President Bashar Assad did not request military intervention from Iraq.” He added that military commander Maher Assad, the former president’s brother, did not enter Iraq after the fall of the regime and “we will not be part of meddling with Syria’s security.”
In a statement reported by the Iraqi News Agency, Al-Sudani firmly stated that Iraq will not allow weapons or armed groups from Syria to enter the country, while emphasizing Baghdad’s commitment to coordination with the Syrian authorities to secure the border.
In addition, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein spoke to his new Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani, on Dec. 30. Hussein highlighted “the recent movements of (Daesh) members along the shared border” and stressed “the importance of enhancing cooperation and coordination to confront these threats.”
Al-Shaibani affirmed “Syria’s readiness for full coordination with Iraq to counter these groups and prevent them from threatening the security of both countries.”
In another interview this month, Al-Sudani said “we sent a delegation to Syria” and explained that “the security issue is pressing due to the presence of (Daesh) terrorists in areas not under the control of the new Syrian administration.”
Through this positive political engagement with the new Syrian leadership, the Iraqi authorities aim to prevent Daesh from regaining control of Iraqi territories. They also seek to avoid sectarian clashes and the resurgence of extremist rhetoric.
While there is concern about Syria and the uncertain future of the wider region — an atmosphere one esteemed Iraqi academic likened to “the days before Saddam Hussein’s regime fell” — Al-Sudani understands that any collapse of the political system in Baghdad would harm Iraq and destabilize the Arabian Gulf.
Therefore, preserving the structure of the state, even through the use of exceptional measures that might displease some of the prime minister’s partners, might be critical at this stage.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran.
X: @Halmustafa