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Miracles happen, sometimes with a lot of suspense and a unique alignment of the stars. In the midst of major regional and international developments, and after 24 months of a political vacuum and complete paralysis, the Lebanese parliament has produced a new president and a new prime minister. Does this mean that the political system works? This question about the uniquely Lebanese power-sharing formula has troubled generations.
Lebanon’s system is sometimes seen as an example of coexistence to be followed by others and at other times there are calls for partition or some form of separation like federalism because coexistence is impossible.
The answer is not obvious. In October 2019, people took to the streets in a blanket condemnation of the political class, political parties, the economic system and the power-sharing formula. The revolutionary slogan was “all means all” — nothing was right and everyone was guilty. Bankers, politicians and corrupt government officials were all responsible for what seemed like a total collapse of the country. Lebanon was also abandoned by the world because it was considered a hopeless case. For many, this meant the end: there was no future and no hope with the current system. Until the last few days, nothing had happened to prove them wrong.
Now, suddenly, there is euphoria and optimism that the country could be on the right path once again, even though the actors are probably going to be more or less the same. Lebanese politicians somehow pulled it off and managed to get out of the paralysis, but the questions about the system and reforming it to avoid further paralysis in the future remain and the answers are not straightforward. The system failed and succeeded at the same time.
Now, suddenly, there is euphoria and optimism that the country could be on the right path once again
Nadim Shehadi
The election of Joseph Aoun as president was a triumph of diplomacy and deal-making. He is perceived to be a man of integrity with an impeccable track record who had won the confidence of the international community. But it was also a malfunction of the political process that necessitated external intervention, albeit a friendly one. The choice was also from outside the political class, which could not bring in one of its own. Aoun is the fourth consecutive current or former military chief to be parachuted into the presidency for lack of a viable alternative through the system.
Aoun’s election resembles a military coup but with a Lebanese twist: when politicians fail, the military steps in and takes over. The difference is that, in Lebanon, it is done by consensus and through parliament. Politicians admitted their inability and handed over power by electing the general who switches to a business suit and tie. Exceptionally, the constitution was amended for “one time and one time only” — for the third time. But let’s not kid ourselves, this should be the last exception, otherwise it becomes the rule.
However, the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister was a shining example of civil society and the political establishment reaching what was seen as the best possible result at the last minute. An academic and a diplomat, Salam previously headed the UN Security Council and presided over the International Court of Justice during the high-profile Gaza genocide case.
Just the day before, it seemed like a choice between two other candidates. All things considered, for such a small country, it could be viewed as a better choice than American voters had a couple of months earlier. We went to bed thinking that caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati was not only leading but was also the inevitable international choice. He represented stability and continuity and had made successful transitions before.
But who wants continuity? There were protests and an intensive social media campaign. We were flooded with emails, WhatsApp messages and social media posts calling for the nomination of Salam as an alternative. The next day, unpredictably, a crescendo of declarations from MPs started naming Salam, one block after the other and from the most unexpected parties. It was too much excitement for one day and, considering what had just happened in Syria, it was enough excitement for a generation.
Reforming the system to prevent another breakdown is the main task that lies ahead for Aoun and Salam
Nadim Shehadi
In 1952, Georges Naccache, the owner of the newspaper L’Orient and a sharp political commentator, diagnosed the problem. People had gone on to the streets to protest what was perceived as a corrupt establishment. They managed to force a president to resign and bring about the election of a popular outsider.
Naccache wrote that it is all very well for the Lebanese to congratulate themselves when the country comes out of a crisis, but he warned that if the solution did not come from within the system, this was also a failure. It is all too easy to blame one man and to think that, by deposing him, the system has rid itself of all its ills. He drew attention to the fact that the events in Lebanon were accompanied by disturbances in Egypt, Iran and Syria, with repercussions that had to be taken into account when answering questions about Lebanon’s existence, character and the chances of its survival and its role in the world.
For Naccache, the significance of the 1952 uprising, regardless of how successful or unsuccessful it was, is that it was the first attempt since independence to mobilize the country for a single cause. The danger there was that this was done outside parliament and outside the normal democratic process. He warned that, if Lebanese institutions were not reformed to contain future events of that sort, they would be done away with on the next occasion. Today, reforming the system to prevent another breakdown is the main task that lies ahead for the new president and prime minister.
While it is true that the system has broken down many times in the country’s history, it did so under the weight of regional factors such as Nasserism, the Palestine Liberation Organization or Syrian and Iranian control, which affected the whole area. Now that these have eased, we will see how it quickly bounces back, even if it needs a little help.
The country is technically still at war with Israel, there are hundreds of thousands of people displaced, entire villages destroyed and forming a government looks impossible. Lebanon is not only recovering from a war, but also from 54 years of the Assad regime as its neighbor.
But with all the challenges ahead, after these last few days in Lebanon, everything feels possible. A friend texted me while I was writing this piece: “My God, we look like a real country.”
- Nadim Shehadi is an economist and political adviser. X: @Confusezeus