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For both the people of Gaza and the families of the Israeli hostages, there is something that is even crueler than the failure to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas — and that is to repeatedly raise their hopes that such an agreement is close, only to dash them with yet another set of unconvincing excuses. In the meantime, more people are killed in Gaza every single day and more hostages are confirmed to have died in captivity. Only last week, the bodies of father and son Youssef and Hamza Alziadana, who were kidnapped on Oct. 7, 2023, were recovered in Gaza by the Israeli army.

For more than a year, since the fighting was briefly halted in November 2023 to allow a phased exchange of hostages taken by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, no substantial progress has been made on a ceasefire deal, leaving those who are directly impacted by the war hanging between hope and despair. One could be forgiven for being left with the impression that there is more of a facade of negotiations than any deep commitment to reaching a deal. These are talks for the sake of talks, mainly to appease the international community or in response to domestic pressure, but with neither the political will nor the courage to make the necessary compromises to finalize an agreement.

In recent weeks, the Donald Trump factor has also entered the conversation, mainly due to the US president-elect’s repeated demand for this issue to be resolved before he enters the White House and his threat that “all hell will break out” if the hostages are not released. It is hard to tell what the new administration may be planning to unleash against Hamas if it does not accede to Trump’s demands or what could be more hellish than the situation that already exists in Gaza. However, those demands might also be a message to Israel to play its part in advancing a deal.

A disconcerting aspect of the negotiations is the constant leaks, with claims that the vast majority of the outstanding issues have been resolved. Be that as it may, some key aspects still need to be bridged. In practice, this is almost meaningless because, until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed.

There is the impression of there being more of a facade of negotiations than any deep commitment to reaching a deal

Yossi Mekelberg

On the face of it, the chief obstacle since the collapse of the November 2023 deal has been Hamas’ demand that any hostage deal must include a broader agreement to end the war in Gaza. With all the justified anger at what Hamas perpetrated on Oct. 7 and its ongoing cruel treatment of the hostages, at this point, when more than 47,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel, with no care for the lives of civilians and the widespread destruction inflicted on this tiny territory, ending the war will serve everyone’s interests, even if not their respective leaderships.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is insisting on a partial deal and refuses to end the fighting, while still trumpeting his hollow commitment to a total victory. Netanyahu has tied himself, and the Israeli army, into intractable knots by aiming to completely eradicate Hamas and claiming that only military pressure will lead to the release of the hostages. But not only is Hamas still fighting, but 98 hostages are still in captivity and, tragically, as time goes by they become less likely to remain alive.

At this point, there is not a shred of evidence to show that Netanyahu gives a fig for the fate of the hostages or for the consequences of the war on his own society. As long as his right-wing partners in the Cabinet threaten to leave the coalition should he agree to a ceasefire that includes the end of the war and the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, his priority will continue to be the well-being of his coalition and not that of the people he was elected to protect.

As for the far-right Religious Zionist party, its Kahanist interpretation of both Judaism and Zionism is beyond contempt. For its leaders, the goal has already switched from defeating Hamas to occupying Gaza and building settlements there. Itamar Ben-Gvir, who holds the position of national security minister, was the only security Cabinet member to vote against the temporary truce of November 2023 that saw the release of 105 civilian hostages out of the 251. It is clear that, despite growing evidence of what the hostages are going through in captivity, he will continue to oppose an end to the war, while Netanyahu, in his weakness and deviousness, is unwilling to oppose this dangerous vision.

There is no evidence that Netanyahu gives a fig for the fate of the hostages or for the consequences of the war on his own society

Yossi Mekelberg

Moreover, to expect anyone in the current Israeli government to show any sympathy for the living hell of the Palestinians in Gaza would be naive. As much as Netanyahu would like to turn the debate over a ceasefire deal into a verdict on the character of Hamas and to portray those who support a ceasefire deal, including the families of the hostages, as Hamas apologists, he is well aware that, militarily, he is taking Israel into a long guerrilla war that will cost lives on both sides with no political gain.

This loss of life, and the divisive impact on Israel’s society of the hostages remaining in captivity, immensely outweighs any downside of agreeing to a ceasefire, as costly as that might be. After all, should Hamas violate the terms of the agreement, Israel will be within its rights to respond militarily. If it adheres to the deal, then the hostages are back home and Israel can come to terms with its longest war since that of 1948 and embark on healing its society, its politics and its economy.

However, this scenario is precisely what does not serve Netanyahu’s personal interests or those of his coalition. And the international community, especially the Biden administration, has let those interests prevail. For the current prime minister, disruptions that create an element of controlled chaos, along with a constant external threat, are the ingredients that allow him, against the odds and despite what Israelis consistently favor in the opinion polls, to remain in office and in defiance of every objective criterion of good governance and accountability.

It has become a pattern of Netanyahu’s behavior in the negotiations that every time a deal seems to be close, all of a sudden new conditions pop up. With a general election not due until the end of next year and the opposition generally leading in the polls by a considerable margin, the chances of an early election are slim. In other words, the country and the conflict are trapped with a government that is recklessly ignoring the suffering of its own people and that of its neighbors for as long as it takes to keep it in power. It remains to be seen whether the inauguration of America’s new president on Jan. 20 can change this and, if so, how quickly.

• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg