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RIYADH: Global oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.21 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching a total of 103.74 million bpd, according to an analysis by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.

The Saudi-based think tank’s latest report also forecasts that oil demand will rise by 1.23 million bpd in 2026, bringing global consumption to 104.97 million bpd.

KAPSARC’s forecast for 2025 is slightly lower than the projection made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in December 2024. OPEC predicted a 1.4 million bpd increase in global oil demand for 2025, bringing the total to 105.3 million bpd.

The KAPSARC analysis highlights several key factors that will influence oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026. While economic conditions and OPEC+ actions have been significant drivers of the oil market in recent years, the report emphasizes that new factors, such as geopolitics, inventory levels, and, to a lesser extent, the global energy transition, will play an increasingly prominent role in shaping market volatility in the coming years.

“Over the past couple of years, some of the main drivers for oil markets have been linked to the economy and OPEC+ actions. However, as we head into 2025 and 2026, new actors will start playing a more important role in shaping oil market volatility — namely, geopolitics, inventory filling, and, to a lesser extent, the energy transition,”  KAPSARC noted in its report.

Inflation is also expected to be a major factor in oil demand growth, with global inflation likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels in the next two years. This persistent inflationary pressure could affect both consumption patterns and investment in energy markets.

According to KAPSARC, countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will see minimal or no growth in oil demand over the next two years. In contrast, non-OECD nations — particularly India and the Middle East—are expected to experience significant demand growth.

India, for example, is forecast to see an increase in oil consumption of 220,000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026. China’s demand growth will remain relatively modest, with increases of 210,000 bpd in 2025 and 190,000 bpd in 2026. The Middle East is projected to experience a growth of 200,000 bpd in each of the next two years.

As a result, the overall growth in oil demand for non-OECD countries is expected to reach 1.09 million bpd annually in 2025 and 2026.

In terms of oil supply, KAPSARC expects global production to increase by approximately 1.48 million bpd in 2025 and 1.98 million bpd in 2026. The report predicts a supply surplus of 260,000 bpd in 2025, followed by a larger surplus of 1.01 million bpd in 2026.

However, KAPSARC also cautions that if OECD countries continue to maintain their historically low inventory levels, as seen in recent years, this could contribute to bearish conditions in the oil commodities market.

“Given the dynamics between oil supply and demand, we anticipate an overall surplus in both 2025 and 2026. If OECD countries keep their inventory levels low, we could see continued downward pressure on oil prices,” KAPSARC concluded.

JEDDAH: Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund has submitted a cash offer that will see it acquire 100 percent of Aramex’s shares, according to an announcement made by the logistics company on Monday.

The offer, which is conditional, comes from Q Logistics Holding LLC, a fully owned subsidiary of ADQ. It targets the portion of Aramex’s issued and paid-up share capital that is not already owned by Abu Dhabi Ports Co.

ADQ was established in 2018 and has a broad portfolio of domestic assets, including Abu Dhabi state carrier Etihad Airways and Abu Dhabi Ports Co., through which it holds a 22.69 percent stake in Aramex.

Aramex confirmed that the proposal will be presented to its board of directors. The company also stated that it will adhere to the required procedures in accordance with the decision of the chairman of the Securities and Commodities Authority regarding the Rules of Acquisition and Merger of Public Joint Stock Companies. 

Following the acquisition offer, Aramex’s shares opened at 2.65 dirhams ($0.72), up from the previous close of 2.31 dirhams. 

In its statement, Aramex noted that shareholders, excluding Abu Dhabi Ports Co., would receive 3 dirhams per share in cash. This offer represents a 33 percent premium over the closing share price of 2.25 dirhams as of Jan. 9. Furthermore, the offer price is a 35 percent premium over the one-month volume-weighted average price of 2.23 dirhams per share.

The company also stated that it would provide further updates on any material developments related to the offer.

In a separate announcement on Jan. 8, Aramex revealed a major step in its efforts to decarbonize logistics in the oil and gas sector. 

The company launched its first commercial deployment of electric trucks and charging solutions in the UAE, in partnership with Admiral Mobility, a local electric vehicle solutions provider. The new fleet includes eight-tonne Farizon electric trucks, each equipped with a 162 kWh battery, certified for use in both the UAE and ��������Ƶ.

This initiative aligns with Aramex’s broader strategy to offer sustainable logistics solutions to its clients while reducing the environmental impact of industrial supply chains. 

The company emphasized that the electric trucks will specifically benefit its oil and gas sector clients by offering efficient and eco-friendly transportation options. Aramex remains committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.