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The Arakan Army’s recent consolidation of its control over the entirety of Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh has reignited debates about the future of the Rohingya. For years, this stateless Muslim minority has faced systemic persecution, displacement and brutal violence. Now, the Arakan Army, a Rakhine nationalist group, claims it is ready to facilitate the repatriation of the Rohingya back to Rakhine State. While this development may seem promising on the surface, a closer look reveals significant challenges, raising serious doubts about whether this is a viable or safe option for the Rohingya.

The group’s offer of repatriation comes amid its growing influence in Rakhine State, where it now controls 11 of the region’s 18 townships, as well as the entire border with Bangladesh. This marks a shift in the power dynamics of the region, with the Arakan Army effectively supplanting Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, in many areas. Maj. Gen. Twan Mrat Naing, the group’s commander-in-chief, has publicly invited the Rohingya to return, signaling a willingness to engage with the minority group. However, the Arakan Army’s nationalist rhetoric and its prioritization of Rakhine self-determination leave many questions unanswered about its commitment to ensuring the safety and dignity of returning Rohingya.

The central issue with the proposal is the group’s inability to guarantee the safety of the Rohingya. The Tatmadaw remains a formidable presence in Rakhine State and it continues to wield significant influence in other parts of Myanmar. Despite the Arakan Army’s territorial gains, it lacks the resources and international recognition to enforce protections for the Rohingya.

Historically, the Rohingya have been subjected to waves of genocidal violence, including the brutal military campaign in 2017 that drove more than 700,000 people into Bangladesh. Without a credible mechanism to ensure their security, any repatriation effort risks exposing the Rohingya to renewed violence.

Despite its territorial gains, it lacks the resources and international recognition to enforce protections for the Rohingya

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Moreover, the Arakan Army itself has a mixed track record in its dealings with the Rohingya. While it has occasionally expressed a willingness to coexist with the minority, reports of abuses by its forces against Rohingya civilians have surfaced over the years. Trust remains a significant barrier. For the Rohingya to consider returning, they need more than verbal assurances — they require legally binding guarantees of their safety, freedom of movement and access to basic rights. These are not things the Arakan Army is currently equipped to provide.

Bangladesh, which hosts more than 1 million Rohingya refugees in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, is eager to see their repatriation. However, past attempts at facilitating their return have failed due to the lack of safety and dignity assurances from Myanmar’s side. With the Arakan Army now in control of the border, Dhaka may feel pressured to engage with the rebel group. Yet, this approach carries risks, as it could legitimize the Arakan Army without addressing the root causes of the Rohingya’s plight.

Meanwhile, regional countries are closing their doors to the Rohingya. Malaysia, long considered a refuge, last week turned back two boats carrying 300 Rohingya refugees, citing national security concerns. Thailand and Indonesia have also tightened their borders, leaving the Rohingya with fewer escape routes. The international community’s failure to provide a coordinated and humane response exacerbates their vulnerability, forcing them into an untenable position: remain in squalid refugee camps or return to a homeland that cannot guarantee their safety.

For repatriation to be a viable option, several conditions must be met. First, there needs to be a robust international monitoring mechanism to ensure the safety and rights of the Rohingya upon their return. This requires cooperation from not only the Arakan Army, but also Myanmar’s national unity government and the broader international community. The Arakan Army’s unilateral control over the border is insufficient to create a secure environment for repatriation without broader systemic changes.

Without legal recognition, the Rohingya will continue to face discrimination and exclusion, making their return unsustainable

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Second, the Rohingya must be granted full citizenship and equal rights in Myanmar. The 1982 Citizenship Law, which effectively rendered them stateless, remains a significant barrier to their reintegration. Without legal recognition, the Rohingya will continue to face discrimination and exclusion, making their return unsustainable in the long term.

Third, the international community must step up its efforts to hold perpetrators of violence against the Rohingya accountable. This includes prosecuting Tatmadaw officials for their role in the 2017 genocide and pressuring Myanmar to address the root causes of the crisis. Accountability is crucial not only for justice, but also for rebuilding trust and ensuring that history does not repeat itself.

While the Arakan Army’s control of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and its invitation to the Rohingya may seem like a step forward, it is far from a solution. The lack of safety guarantees, coupled with the group’s limited capacity to address the systemic issues underlying the Rohingya crisis, makes repatriation a highly precarious proposition. The Rohingya deserve more than empty promises and symbolic gestures; they need concrete actions that ensure their safety, dignity and rights.

The international community must not abdicate its responsibility to protect one of the world’s most persecuted minorities. Regional countries, too, must do more to provide refuge and push for a sustainable solution. Until these conditions are met, the Rohingya will remain in limbo, caught between a homeland that offers them no safety and a world increasingly unwilling to provide them with sanctuary. This is a humanitarian crisis that demands urgent and collective action.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim