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AI era can benefit from lessons of the nuclear arms race

AI era can benefit from lessons of the nuclear arms race

AI era can benefit from lessons of the nuclear arms race
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Every so often, news emerges of an advanced AI model outperforming its predecessor, restarting debates about the trajectory of AI. These incremental improvements, while impressive, also reignite discussions about the prospect of artificial general intelligence or AGI — a hypothetical AI that could match or exceed human cognitive abilities across the board.

This potential technological leap brings to mind another transformative innovation of the 20th century: nuclear power. Both promise unprecedented capabilities but carry risks that could reshape or even end human civilization as we know it.

The development of AI, like nuclear technology, offers remarkable opportunities and grave dangers. It could solve humanity’s most significant challenges or become our ultimate undoing. The nuclear arms race taught us the perils of unchecked technological advancement. Are we heeding those lessons in the AI era?

The creation of nuclear weapons introduced the concept of mutually assured destruction. With AGI, we face not only existential risks of extinction but also the prospect of extreme suffering and a world where human life loses meaning.

Imagine a future where superintelligent systems surpass human creativity, taking over all jobs. The very fabric of human purpose could unravel.

Should it be developed, controlling AGI would be akin to maintaining perfect safety in a nuclear reactor — theoretically possible but practically fraught with challenges. While we have managed nuclear technology for decades, AGI presents unique difficulties.

Unlike static nuclear weapons, AGI could learn, self-modify, and interact unpredictably. A nuclear incident, however catastrophic, allows for recovery. An AGI breakout might offer no such luxury.

The timeline for AGI remains uncertain and hotly debated. While some “optimistic” predictions suggest it could arrive within years, many experts believe it is still decades away, if achievable at all.

Regardless, the stakes are too high to be complacent. Do we have the equivalent of International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards for AI development? Our current methods for assessing AI capabilities seem woefully inadequate for truly understanding the potential risks and impacts of more advanced systems.

The open nature of scientific research accelerated both nuclear and AI development. But while open-source software has proven its value, transitioning from tools to autonomous agents introduces unprecedented dangers. Releasing powerful AI systems into the wild could have unforeseen consequences.

The Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink but also ushered in an era of arms control treaties. We need similar global cooperation on AI safety — and fast.

We must prioritize robust international frameworks for AI development and deployment, increased funding for AI safety research, public education on the potential impacts of AGI, and ethical guidelines that all AI researchers and companies must adhere to. It is a tough ask.

With AGI, we face not only existential risks of extinction but also the prospect of extreme suffering and a world where human life loses meaning.

Mohammed A. Alqarni

However, as we consider these weighty issues, it is crucial to recognize the current limitations of AI technology.

The large language models that have captured the public imagination, while impressive, are fundamentally pattern recognition and prediction systems. They lack true understanding, reasoning capabilities, or the ability to learn and adapt in the way human intelligence does.

While these systems show remarkable capabilities, there's an ongoing debate in the AI community about whether they represent a path toward AGI or if fundamentally different approaches will be needed.

In fact, many experts believe that achieving AGI may require additional scientific breakthroughs that are not currently available. We may need new insights into the nature of consciousness, cognition, and intelligence — breakthroughs potentially as profound as those that ushered in the nuclear age.

This perspective offers both reassurance and a call to action.

Reassurance comes from understanding that AGI is not an inevitability based on our current trajectory. We have time to carefully consider the ethical implications, develop robust safety measures, and create international frameworks for responsible AI development.

However, the call to action is to use this time wisely, investing in foundational research not just in AI but also in cognitive science, neuroscience, and philosophy of mind.

As we navigate the future of AI, let us approach it with a balance of excitement and caution. We should harness the immense potential of current AI technologies to solve pressing global challenges while simultaneously preparing for a future that may include more advanced forms of AI.

By fostering global cooperation, ethical guidelines, and a commitment to human-centric AI development, we can work towards a future where AI enhances rather than endangers human flourishing.

The parallels with nuclear technology remind us of the power of human ingenuity and the importance of responsible innovation. Just as we have learned to harness nuclear power for beneficial purposes while avoiding global catastrophe so far, we have an opportunity to shape the future of AI in a way that amplifies human potential rather than diminishing it.

The path forward requires vigilance, collaboration, and an unwavering commitment to the betterment of humanity. In this endeavor, our human wisdom and values are the most critical components of all.

Mohammed A. Alqarni is an academic and consultant on AI for business.
 

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

Saudi Cabinet welcomes UN request for ICJ opinion on Israel’s obligations

Saudi Cabinet welcomes UN request for ICJ opinion on Israel’s obligations
Updated 2 min 27 sec ago

Saudi Cabinet welcomes UN request for ICJ opinion on Israel’s obligations

Saudi Cabinet welcomes UN request for ICJ opinion on Israel’s obligations
  • UN General Assembly resolution was put forward by Norway
  • Advisory opinion from ICJ will clarify Israel’s obligations under international law

RIYADH: The Saudi Cabinet welcomed on Tuesday the adoption of a UN General Assembly resolution requesting an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice on Israel’s obligations related to the presence and activities of the UN.

Last week, UN member states requested the World Court to act urgently, with 137 countries voting in favor, 12 against and 22 abstaining.

The resolution was put forward by Norway on behalf of a core group of 13 countries, including the Kingdom.

An advisory opinion from the ICJ will clarify Israel’s obligations under international law to ensure and facilitate the work of the UN, international organizations and third states in providing life-saving humanitarian assistance and basic services to the Palestinian civilian population.

The resolution and its adoption come after Israel’s Knesset passed a law in October banning the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East from operating in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

The Cabinet expressed gratitude for the positive stance of the countries that supported the resolution, the Saudi Press Agency said.

The Saudi Cabinet meeting, chaired by King Salman, also discussed the recent meeting between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani.

On Sudan, the Cabinet affirmed Ƶ’s position to end the conflict in the country, stressing efforts to enhance humanitarian aid and seek a political future that secures Sudan’s stability, unity and sovereignty.

The Cabinet commended the hosting of the first Arab Cybersecurity Ministers Council in Riyadh this month, aimed at enhancing cooperation among Arab nations in cybersecurity and computer-related threats.

Domestically, the Cabinet recognized the progress made by government agencies in the digital transformation index for 2024 and their efforts to improve services to residents and visitors of the Kingdom.

Minister of Media Salman Al-Dossary told SPA that the Cabinet praised the success of recent economic, cultural and media conferences and events in Riyadh, strengthening the city’s position as a global hub for science, knowledge, investment and innovation.


Pakistan defends military court sentencing of civilians after US, UK and EU voice concerns

Pakistan defends military court sentencing of civilians after US, UK and EU voice concerns
Updated 11 min 44 sec ago

Pakistan defends military court sentencing of civilians after US, UK and EU voice concerns

Pakistan defends military court sentencing of civilians after US, UK and EU voice concerns
  • Pakistan’s military on Dec. 21 announced the sentencing of 25 civilians for partaking in violent protests in May last year
  • The US, UK and EU said the verdicts were ‘inconsistent’ with Pakistan’s international obligations and lacked ‘transparency’

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Tuesday defended the recent sentencing of 25 civilians by military courts for partaking in violent protests last year, dismissing concerns expressed by the United States (US), United Kingdom and the European Union (EU) regarding Islamabad’s global human rights obligations.
Pakistan’s military on Dec. 21 announced the sentencing of 25 people to “rigorous imprisonment” of two to 10 years for participating in violent protests on May 9, 2023, when hundreds carrying flags of former prime minister Imran Khan’s party attacked government and military installations.
The protests erupted after Khan’s brief detention on corruption charges, resulting in damage to major military facilities and martyrs’ monuments in the country. Khan’s party challenges the military’s version, denying it was involved in the violence and calling the May 9 incident a “false flag” operation aimed at crushing it.
The EU said on Sunday the sentencing was “inconsistent” with Pakistan’s international obligations and every person was entitled to a “fair and public trial in a court that is independent, impartial and competent.” The US and the UK joined the EU in expressing concern over the convictions, with the State Department saying on Monday the Pakistani military courts lacked “judicial independence and due process guarantees.”
“Pakistan’s legal system is consistent with international human rights law including provisions of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). It has remedies of judicial review by the superior courts and guarantees promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms,” the Pakistani foreign ministry said in a statement.
“Pakistan is fully committed to fulfilling all its international human rights obligations.”
The Foreign Office in London said while the UK respected Pakistan’s sovereignty over its own legal proceedings, “trying civilians in military courts lacks transparency, independent scrutiny and undermines the right to a fair trial.”
In its statement on Sunday, the EU had noted that under the its Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+), beneficiary countries, including Pakistan, had voluntarily agreed to effectively implement 27 international core conventions, including the ICCPR, in order to continue benefitting from the special trade arrangement. The preferential trade status under the GSP+ scheme grants Pakistani exports duty-free access to the European market.
The Pakistani foreign ministry responded by saying that the verdicts had been made under a law enacted by the Pakistan parliament and in line with a judgment of the country’s top court.
The Dec. 21 announcement of sentences by the military followed a ruling by a seven-member Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan on Dec. 13, in which it allowed the military courts to share their verdicts. Prior to that, the top court had unanimously declared last year that prosecuting civilians in military courts was in violation of the Constitution.
“Pakistan believes in constructive and productive dialogue to promote principles of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. We remain fully committed to implementing our commitments under the GSP Plus Scheme and core international human rights conventions,” the foreign ministry said.
“We will continue to engage with our international partners including the European Union to uphold the international human rights law, without any discrimination and double standards.”
The sentencing of civilians in May 2023 riots cases has also raised concerns among supporters of ex-PM Khan, who has been in jail since August 2023 on a slew of charges, including inciting attacks against the armed forces, and may potentially be tried in a military court.
Pakistan has remained gripped by political unrest and uncertainty since Khan’s ouster from power through a parliamentary no-confidence vote in April 2022, which has also exacerbated Pakistan’s economic hardships.
The Pakistani government this week opened talks with Khan’s PTI opposition party in a bid to address political polarization. Senior government representatives have also recently acknowledged that the negotiations could offer a pathway out of the current political impasse.


Looting cripples food supply in Gaza despite Israeli pledge to tackle gangs, sources say

A Palestinian mother changes the clothes of her five-year-old daughter suffering from malnutrition, at a shelter they live in.
A Palestinian mother changes the clothes of her five-year-old daughter suffering from malnutrition, at a shelter they live in.
Updated 10 min 23 sec ago

Looting cripples food supply in Gaza despite Israeli pledge to tackle gangs, sources say

A Palestinian mother changes the clothes of her five-year-old daughter suffering from malnutrition, at a shelter they live in.
  • IDF has taken only limited actions against the handful of gangs operating in parts of Gaza under Israeli control, according to three officials

GAZA: Israel has failed to crack down on armed gangs attacking food convoys in Gaza, despite a pledge to do so in mid-October to help ward off famine in the Palestinian enclave, according to three UN and US officials familiar with the matter.

The commitment, made behind closed doors, seemed like a breakthrough because, since the beginning of the war in October 2023, the international community has struggled to enlist Israel’s support to improve the dire humanitarian situation in the war-ravaged territory, the three senior officials said.
But the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has remained focused on its fight against Hamas and taken only limited actions against the handful of gangs operating in parts of Gaza under Israeli control, according to the three officials, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.
The office of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred questions on the pledge and relief operations in Gaza to the military. An IDF spokesperson declined to comment on what was agreed in October and what has been done to curb looting.
“Israel has taken significant steps to allow the maximum possible scope of aid to Gaza,” the spokesperson said.
Now, UN and US officials say gang violence has spiraled out of control, crippling supply lines on which most of Gaza’s 2.1 million civilians rely for survival.
In October, $9.5 million worth of food and other goods – nearly a quarter of all the humanitarian aid sent to Gaza that month – was lost because of attacks and looting, according to a previously unreported tally of incidents compiled by UN relief agencies with charity organizations.
The assessment of looting in November is still underway, but preliminary data shows that it was far worse, two people familiar with the matter said. In mid-November, a 109-truck convoy chartered by UN agencies came under attack minutes after it was ordered by the IDF to leave a border crossing in southern Gaza during the night, several hours ahead of the agreed schedule, according to five people familiar with the incident, including two who were present.
Stationed nearby, the IDF did not intervene, the five people said. The IDF spokesperson declined to comment on the incident.
Georgios Petropoulos, a coordinator at the UN’s emergency-response arm, OCHA, said that aid agencies were unable to resolve the problem of lawlessness there by themselves.
“It’s just gotten too big for humanitarians to solve,” he told reporters upon returning from Gaza on Thursday.
The US Department of State declined to comment on Israel’s October commitment, but said that looting remained the primary obstacle to aid delivery.
“We continue to press Israel on the need for bolstered security to ensure convoys with critical humanitarian assistance reach Palestinian civilians throughout Gaza,” a spokesperson said.
Fourteen months into Israel’s war against Hamas, the international relief machine is in disarray: UN agencies and charities say the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has reached one of its worst points because they cannot deliver and distribute enough food and medical supplies to Gaza’s population. A new round of ceasefire talks this month has rekindled hope that Hamas would release Israeli hostages it has held captive since its Oct. 7 attack on Israel last year, and that solutions can be found to boost humanitarian aid.
For now, however, relief operations are hobbled by a disagreement between Israel and much of the international community over who is responsible for feeding civilians in Gaza and maintaining order in the tiny territory.
The UN and the United States have repeatedly called on Israel to comply with international humanitarian laws, and provide security and assistance to Gaza civilians. But Israeli authorities say their only duty is to facilitate the transfer of food and medical supplies, and that they regularly do much more out of goodwill.
The stalemate has made organizing and coordinating relief operations immensely difficult, said Jamie McGoldrick, who was the UN Humanitarian chief for the Occupied Palestinian Territory from December to April.
To gauge the depth of the hunger crisis, US officials said they watch the percentage of Gaza’s population to whom UN relief agencies could provide food assistance each month.
In November, it was 29 percent, up from 24 percent in October, but a sharp fall from a wartime peak of more than 70 percent in April, according to UN data.
Mohammad Abdel-Dayem, owner of the Zadna 2 bakery in central Gaza, said he and his 60 employees have been out of business for a month, unable to provide bread to the 50,000 people they normally serve.
“We’re not receiving any flour because of looting,” he told Reuters by phone last week.
The IDF spokesperson challenged the claim that some bakeries are not receiving flour.
But a daily World Food Programme review of bakery operations seen by Reuters showed that 15 of the 19 bread factories the UN agency supports in Gaza were out of operation as of Dec. 21, and that Zadna 2 has been closed since Nov. 23 due to a lack of flour.
Some of the stolen food makes its way to the market, Abdel-Dayem said, but at prohibitive prices that only very few people can afford. Relief workers said they also face difficulties in accessing northern Gaza, where the IDF resumed combat against Hamas in October. An estimated 30,000 to 50,000 civilians remain stranded there, with little food and medical assistance.
The IDF spokesperson said a dedicated humanitarian response has been formulated for the area. Aside from fighting in the north, more than a dozen UN and US officials traced the deterioration of humanitarian conditions inside Gaza in the past three months to a decision by Israeli authorities in early October to ban commercial food shipments by businesses.
Those shipments accounted for nearly all the fresh food and more than half of all goods going into Gaza between May and September, according to Israeli military data.
Their abrupt suspension caused a sharp drop in supply and made attacking aid trucks an increasingly lucrative proposition, the UN and US officials said.
In October, 40 percent of aid collected from the Kerem Shalom crossing in southern Gaza was looted, according to the tally of incidents seen by Reuters.
Israeli authorities have opened a new crossing, Kissufim, but gangs have also attacked convoys along that route, the UN said.
The gangs are formed along tribal and family lines, and include some criminal elements freed from prisons in Gaza during the Israeli offensive, according to relief and transport workers in Gaza.
The UN and the United States have pressed Israel to restore commercial shipments, saying that flooding Gaza with food would drive down prices and discourage looters, but Israeli authorities have not agreed to do so.
Depleted trucks
Early in the war, the UN sought to rely on unarmed Gaza policemen to secure convoys, but Israel was opening fire on them, saying it could not tolerate any force tied to Hamas.
Visiting the Kerem Shalom crossing in late November, an Israeli officer said it was the responsibility of the UN to distribute aid to Gazans once Israel allowed food across the border.
Waiving at piles of food, Col. Abdullah Halabi – clad in a bullet-proof vest and ballistic helmet – told reporters it was aid “waiting to be picked up by international organizations.”
But OCHA’s Petropoulos said gang violence makes this nearly impossible.
He and other relief workers said they were stunned by the attack on the 109-truck convoy on Nov. 16 about four miles from the crossing.
Gunmen from several gangs surrounded the convoy and forced drivers to follow them to nearby compounds where they stole flour and food kits from 98 trucks, according to the five people familiar with the matter.
Drivers and their depleted trucks were released in the morning, they said.


Morocco proposes family law reforms to improve women’s rights

Morocco aims to grant women more rights over child custody and guardianship as well as a veto over polygamous marriage. (AFP)
Morocco aims to grant women more rights over child custody and guardianship as well as a veto over polygamous marriage. (AFP)
Updated 36 min 4 sec ago

Morocco proposes family law reforms to improve women’s rights

Morocco aims to grant women more rights over child custody and guardianship as well as a veto over polygamous marriage. (AFP)
  • Draft code proposes more than 100 amendments, notably allowing women to stipulate opposition to polygamy in a marriage contract

RABAT: Morocco aims to grant women more rights over child custody and guardianship as well as a veto over polygamous marriage, in the first review of its family code in 20 years, the justice and Islamic affairs ministers said on Tuesday.
Women’s rights campaigners have been pushing for a revision of regulations governing the rights of women and children within the family in Morocco.
The draft code proposes more than 100 amendments, notably allowing women to stipulate opposition to polygamy in a marriage contract, justice minister Abdellatif Ouahbi told reporters.
In the absence of such opposition, a husband can take a second wife under certain circumstances such as the first wife’s infertility, he said, putting more restrictions on polygamy.
It also aims to simplify and shorten divorce procedures, considers chid custody a shared right between spouses and gives either spouse the right to retain the marital home in the event of the other’s death, he said.
Divorced women will be allowed to retain child custody upon remarriage and the code will restrict exceptions for underage marriage to 17 years, maintaining the legal marriage age of 18. While the revised code does not abolish the Islamic-based inheritance rule which grants a man twice the share of a woman, it allows individuals to gift any of their assets to their female heirs, Ouahbi said. But inheritances between spouses from different religions can only occur through wills or gifts. Moroccan women’s rights defenders, who have pushed particularly for equal inheritance laws, could not be reached for immediate comment.
King Mohammed VI, the country’s supreme religious authority, said on Monday that the amended code, which has to be submitted to parliament for approval, should be underpinned by “the principles of justice, equality, solidarity and harmony” with Islamic precepts and universal values to protect the Moroccan family.


Ƶ raises $3.09bn in sukuk issuances for December

Ƶ raises $3.09bn in sukuk issuances for December
Updated 46 min 3 sec ago

Ƶ raises $3.09bn in sukuk issuances for December

Ƶ raises $3.09bn in sukuk issuances for December

RIYADH: Ƶ’s National Debt Management Center has successfully concluded its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for December, raising SR11.59 billion ($3.09 billion).

This marks a substantial 239.88 percent increase from the previous month, when the Kingdom raised SR3.41 billion in sukuk. Ƶ had raised SR7.83 billion in October and SR2.6 billion in September.

Sukuk, which are Shariah-compliant Islamic bonds, provide investors with partial ownership of the issuer’s assets until the bonds mature. The rise in sukuk issuance aligns with positive global market projections.

A Moody’s report released in September forecasted that the global sukuk market would remain robust in 2024, with total issuance expected to reach between $200 billion and $210 billion, an increase from just under $200 billion in 2023.

The December sukuk issuance by NDMC was structured into four tranches, each with varying maturities. The largest tranche, valued at SR5.58 billion, is set to mature in 2027. Another tranche, worth SR3.90 billion, will mature in 2029, while a third tranche, valued at SR706 million, is due for repayment in 2031. The final tranche, amounting to SR1.4 billion, will mature in 2034.

This surge in sukuk issuance comes as the Kingdom is expected to lead the Gulf Cooperation Council region in bond and sukuk maturities between 2025 and 2029.

A report by Kamco Invest, released earlier this month, projected that Ƶ’s total bond and sukuk maturities during this period would reach $168 billion, with government-issued bonds and sukuk accounting for $110.2 billion of that total.

In December, Fitch Ratings also highlighted that the GCC debt capital market crossed the $1 trillion threshold in outstanding debt by the end of November.

Earlier in October, Fitch had noted that the growth in sukuk issuance was driven by improving financing conditions, especially after the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut to 5 percent in September. Looking ahead, Fitch expects interest rates to decline further, reaching 4.5 percent by the end of 2024 and 3.5 percent by the end of 2025, which is likely to spur more sukuk issuances in the short term.