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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer last week attended the Armistice Day commemorations in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron. This was the first time a British prime minister had been in France for this pivotal annual event, which marks the end of the First World War, since Winston Churchill in 1944.
During his visit, Starmer also announced £10 million ($12.6 million) in UK funding for next year’s 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. This was a symbolic gesture toward Britain’s allies, as they continue to support Ukraine in its own war with Russia. Discussions between Starmer and Macron revolved around the inordinate number of challenges facing Ukraine in its conflict and the added fear of rising global frictions due to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Starmer’s visit followed the election victory of Donald Trump, which has led to multiple concerns in European capitals. A main cause for the distress is Trump’s threats to end US support to Kyiv, which has been at war with Russia for more than two years. Another connected concern is the possibility of the US withdrawing from NATO, while simultaneously not allowing Ukraine to join the alliance. A Downing Street spokesperson commented: “The leaders (Starmer and Macron) started by discussing the situation in Ukraine, including how best to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position going into the winter.”
According to the EU’s official website, the bloc’s countries have provided economic, military and humanitarian support for Ukraine worth more than €88 billion ($92 billion) since February 2022. In comparison, a report published by the Council on Foreign Relations in September suggested that the US had provided $175 billion, $106 billion of which directly aided the Ukrainian government. The American military aid and economic support continues to be the US and other Ukraine allies’ key role in supporting its counteroffensive and defense systems against Russia.
With the potential loss of massive financial support when Trump returns to the White House — larger than that offered by the entirety of the EU — very clear concerns are manifesting among European leaders. At the same time, these worries contribute to further boosting relations between certain European countries, especially in security matters. The fact that Russian forces are being supported in combat by North Korean soldiers, as reported by the US, also serves as an alarm for Europe’s military personnel, encouraging their states to offer further military support for the Ukrainian cause.
The difference between the US and Europe is that, in the case of Washington, it was a geopolitical game. For Europe, however, the Ukraine war is very heavily connected with its own security concerns. My observations, along with the lectures of many prominent European stakeholders, suggest that it is America’s potential withdrawal of support for Ukraine that has left European leaders on edge. New strategies are now being discussed and dealt with around the table, with growing concerns expected in the short-run.
Starmer’s historic visit to France marks a turning point in relations between the two nations following their painful Brexit divorce.
Dr. Diana Galeeva
Another geopolitical crisis is the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, which is causing further challenges for Europe in terms of security and migration. Following the meeting with Macron, Starmer’s spokesperson said: “Reflecting on the situation in the Channel, the prime minister set out his mission to disrupt and deter smuggling gangs across Europe, and the leaders strongly agreed on the importance of bearing down on illegal migration at every stage of a migrant’s journey.”
At the end of 2021, less than 10 percent of the world’s refugees and internally displaced people were living in the EU. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, one of the criticisms of EU states was the hypocrisy in their treatment of refugees from Ukraine versus those escaping from war-torn areas in the Middle East. Indeed, in 2022, because of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Europe received the largest number of refugees fleeing conflict it had experienced since the Second World War. As a result, the share of the world’s refugees living in the EU passed the 20 percent mark. At the end of 2023, it stood at 23 percent.
The war in Gaza might cause further challenges. On the one hand, European leaders stress the need for stability in the West Bank, while on the other there is the possibility of a new wave of immigration from the Middle East as a direct result of the wars in Lebanon and Gaza, potentially bringing political and economic challenges. Meanwhile, Europe might once again find itself facing criticism for offering less aid and space for immigrants from the Middle East in comparison to refugees from Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the British prime minister’s visit to France has raised concerns over geopolitical issues that require quick and effective responses from European leaders and potential criticisms over their meager diplomatic approach to ending the Gaza war. All these challenges could contribute to uniting the UK and other European nations, in spite of Brexit.
Previously, one of the key post-Brexit directions for the UK was expected to be keeping close ties with the US, but this will likely change from 2025 and over the next four years. Despite the fact that “it has been tense between France and the UK since Brexit, or maybe since Waterloo,” according to National Public Radio’s Eleanor Beardsley, Trump’s reelection is expected to offer a countereffect by forcing a de facto connection between the UK and France.
Starmer’s historic visit to France was crucial for many reasons. Firstly, it marked a turning point in relations between the two nations following their painful Brexit divorce. Secondly, new geopolitical transformations — especially the reelection of Trump — have also brought these two nations closer together. Finally, this visit demonstrated how the UK and France are two crucial European nations, whose leaders’ visions will define the future of the continent, including its place within the multipolar world.
How the geopolitical placement of Europe will look in the near future will depend on the extent the matters and policies discussed by Starmer and Macron during this visit are implemented.
- Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to Oxford University. X: @Dr_GaleevaDiana