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As the 2024 US elections approach, the atmosphere is charged with intensity reminiscent of the Cold War era. Since 2016, American society has become increasingly polarized, exemplified by the ongoing rivalry between Donald Trump and his Democratic counterparts. Joe Biden’s ascension to the presidency was largely fueled by public dissatisfaction with the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, a sentiment that has led many to question his effectiveness in crisis management, mirroring critiques faced by his predecessor, Trump.

While the media emphasizes domestic issues such as abortion, immigration, inflation, and taxes, it is crucial not to overlook how foreign policy may sway swing voters, particularly within significant communities such as Arab Americans. The geopolitical landscape, especially the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, will likely play a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment as we move closer to the elections.

Under Biden’s leadership, US policy has thrust Ukraine into a precarious situation against Russia, with the Ukrainian populace bearing the brunt of the conflict. Nearly three years in, Russia remains resolute in its stance against NATO’s perceived encroachment on its borders. Following recent BRICS meetings, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that more than 30 countries have expressed interest in joining the group, indicating a desire to challenge Western “hegemony” and shape a “multipolar world order.”

In Europe, allies are grappling with the fallout of the conflict, facing unprecedented fuel prices, and a refugee crisis that burdens their economies. The lack of a clear military or political resolution exacerbates these challenges, leaving Europe reliant on US directives regarding potential ceasefires in Ukraine and the broader implications for regional stability.

The geopolitical landscape will play a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment

Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed

In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to exploit a perception of a US administration as weak and disengaged, as ongoing conflicts draw in regional powers aligned with Iran. This situation raises the specter of a direct confrontation between Israel and its adversaries, a scenario fraught with peril not only for the region but also for international relations.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris finds herself in a precarious position navigating these complicated foreign policy issues. Her commitment to continue Biden’s foreign policy, which has not yielded success in Ukraine or Gaza, leaves her vulnerable to criticism. Her attempts to resonate with Michigan’s significant Arab community, such as her assertion to “end the suffering” in Gaza, stand in contrast to her unwavering support for military aid to Israel, highlighting the fractures within the Democratic Party on foreign policy.

Exploring the nuances of this crisis reveals that financial interests often take precedence over political ideologies. Corporations and state institutions have historically wielded power, sometimes leading to decisions driven more by economic gains than by the well-being of constituents. Wars are often justified through grand rhetoric, but underneath lies a stark reality of “savage capitalism” benefitting arms dealers and the military-industrial complex.

The political scientist Samuel P. Huntington once noted: “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values... but by its superiority in applying organized violence.” While this may prompt reflection on the past, it also suggests the need for a balanced approach in the future. Regardless of the election’s outcome, the implications for Europe are significant. Europe must develop a new strategy that navigates its relationship with the US, accounting for shifting dynamics in global politics. The need for a clear articulation of collective interests has never been more pressing as competition from China and ongoing instability in the Middle East create challenges that demand a cohesive response.

In the Arab world, particularly the Gulf states, collaboration among nations will be vital in prioritizing sustainable development and avoiding conflicts. Analysts predict an inevitable and potentially swift American withdrawal from the region, necessitating a reassessment of how Arab nations work together, especially with the Biden administration’s evident desire for reduced US involvement.

Lack of a clear military or political resolution exacerbates these challenges

Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed

This transitory phase in American foreign policy could call into question whether it is the US that is leaving or merely redefining its strategy in a complex landscape. The fallout from military engagement often leaves a legacy of instability, a sentiment echoed by foreign affairs analysts.

Joseph Roth’s poignant reflections in “The Emperor’s Tomb” on the decline of powerful civilizations resonate with present-day realities, where moral decay and ineffective leadership raise urgent concerns about the future of American democracy. As the country prepares for the elections, it is clear that the American populace itself may emerge as the greatest loser. With divisions deepening and trust in leadership eroding, many yearn for a time when the presidency symbolized national unity and strength.

The upcoming elections will determine not only the future of US leadership but also the implications for global politics. As the US stands at this crossroads, a calculated examination of the interplay between domestic issues and foreign policy will be vital for voters seeking meaningful change in a complex world.

Ultimately, navigating the turbulent waters of the 2024 elections requires a balanced approach that considers both domestic priorities and the intricate web of global relations. As the political landscape evolves, the US public and policymakers must be vigilant and informed, ensuring they champion a vision that promotes unity, moral clarity, and sustainable progress both at home and abroad.

• Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed is an adjunct professor at the University of Arizona, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Department of Biosystems Engineering. He is the author of “Agricultural Development Strategies: The Saudi Experience.”