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If Kamala Harris wins the US presidency, it would be an unprecedented historical development. She would become not only the first woman to hold the office but also the first Black woman of Asian and Indian descent to do so.

However, the question to ask is whether Harris will, indeed, win the upcoming US presidential election scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

To answer this question, it is important to consider all the factors in her favor and those working against her. She holds a key position as vice president and is the official Democratic presidential nominee. Additionally, she has chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, a move that could boost her chances in swing states.

Harris has also demonstrated her ability to raise substantial funds, which can help her run effective campaigns attacking her opponent, former President Donald Trump, and promoting her own candidacy. Public opinion polls indicate that she is leading in terms of the popular vote and in many of the critical states both candidates need to secure to win the White House. Moreover, she has gained more popularity than current President Joe Biden since entering the race, and several press reports suggest that she won against Trump in the debate viewed by millions of Americans. All these factors undeniably work in her favor in defeating Trump.

However, several factors could weaken Harris’ chances of winning the presidency. One is her frequent emphasis on supporting women’s right to abortion, to the extent that she mentions this political stance in nearly every campaign ad released by her team. This raises questions such as whether the current presidential election is focused predominately on the issue of abortion, without addressing the many other concerns that affect millions of Americans and people around the world.

Kamala Harris has demonstrated her ability to raise substantial funds, which can help her run effective campaigns attacking her opponent.

Many voters, particularly young women, agree with Harris on her stance on abortion rights. However, many others, including women, may disagree. Trump has stated multiple times that he would not impose a national ban on abortion but would leave the matter to state governments and courts. Nevertheless, Harris continues to portray the issue as a life-threatening one, often sharing the story of a young woman who, due to abortion restrictions, was unable to terminate her pregnancy, which put her health in danger and ultimately led to her premature death. This raises questions about her ability to attract the support of conservative voters within the Democratic Party itself.

Politico noted that Pennsylvania, particularly in its northeastern regions, is home to many conservative, religious Democrats whose votes Harris may not be able to secure. Considering that her success depends on winning Pennsylvania, political analysis suggests that her loss in the presidential race could stem from Pennsylvania voting for Trump.

Moreover, some of Harris’ past actions may cast doubts on her candidacy. For instance, she rarely gives press interviews, and when she does, her answers are often brief and vague. This prompted one writer for The New York Times to describe her responses in interviews as “evasive, like circular roads.” As a result, this approach may lead many people to withhold their votes, as they do not know her position on issues that affect their lives.

Harris also holds views on international policy that could cost her votes. During her speech at the Democratic National Convention, she stated that the 21st century would see America’s pursuit of superiority and triumph over China. This implies that US policy will require forming international and regional alliances to achieve victories against the People’s Republic of China. Such an approach would compel the US to demand that most countries side with it in its anticipated and repeated confrontations with China. This could potentially turn the Middle East into a strategic battleground between the US and China, which is not in the interest of the governments and people of the Middle East.

Harris also favors the US re-entering the nuclear agreement with Iran and has criticized Israel’s actions in the West Bank. Unfortunately, her foreign policy will be a continuation of the Biden policy with regard to the war in Ukraine.

Harris does have a chance to win the White House. However, it is clear that she is creating obstacles for herself that may ultimately prevent her from securing the presidency.

• Faisal Al-Shammeri is a political analyst. X: @Mr_Alshammeri

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