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The ongoing Israeli war on Hezbollah in Lebanon poses a critical question: Will Syria be drawn into this conflict as it escalates? As the violence intensifies, the geographical proximity of Syria to Lebanon makes it almost inevitable that events in the latter will affect the former. Historically, Lebanon and Syria appear to have had intertwined fates, politically, economically and socially, due to their shared border and cultural ties. This raises concerns that the current conflict in Lebanon could spread across the border, especially given the complex alliances and rivalries in the region, which involve not just local actors but also global powers like Iran, the US and Russia.

Conflicts in Syria and Lebanon have often spilled over from one to the other, especially during times of civil strife. The Syrian civil war, for instance, had devastating effects on Lebanon, causing severe economic strain and altering the social fabric.

Over the past decade, Lebanon has nearly 1.5 million Syrian refugees, placing enormous strain on its infrastructure and public services. Now, as violence erupts in Lebanon, the reverse could happen, with refugees flooding into Syria, further destabilizing this already fragile country. The social, economic and political ramifications of this are vast and Syria is unlikely to escape the fallout if this conflict worsens.

Israel’s war against Hezbollah is already having a significant impact on Syria, though it has not yet drawn the country into direct conflict. One of the first effects is an influx of refugees, with more than 250,000 Lebanese civilians reportedly to Syria. For a country still recovering from a brutal civil war, this influx exacerbates Syria’s already dire humanitarian crisis.

Continued Israeli military operations in Syrian airspace could eventually provoke a stronger reaction

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

In addition to this, Israel has multiple airstrikes into Syrian territory, targeting locations said to be linked to Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. So far, the Damascus government has limited its response to condemning these strikes verbally, avoiding military retaliation. However, continued Israeli military operations in Syrian airspace could eventually provoke a stronger reaction, pushing Syria closer to open involvement in the conflict.

From the perspective of the Syrian leadership, directly entering the conflict in Lebanon would not serve its strategic interests. The Syrian state is still grappling with its own internal challenges, including the fact that its authority contested in some areas. The government appears to be focused on consolidating its power internally and engaging in a war with Israel could unravel the fragile gains it has made since the end of large-scale civil war. Furthermore, Syria is not yet fully stable, with much of the country still under reconstruction and grappling with international sanctions, making any involvement in a regional war a potentially catastrophic miscalculation.

There are several other reasons why Syria is likely to avoid entering a direct military confrontation with Israel. From an economic perspective, Syria is struggling to rebuild after years of war and another military conflict could crush what little recovery is underway. Militarily, Syria is no match for Israel’s sophisticated and well-funded defense forces. While Syria does maintain a military presence and it has some alliances with Hezbollah and Iran, its capabilities are nowhere near those of Israel.

Moreover, the Syrian government is aware that a war could lead to renewed insurgencies within its own borders. Some groups could use the chaos of war as an opportunity to regroup and challenge the government’s rule once again, risking a return to civil war conditions.

In addition, history has shown that Syria tends to avoid direct involvement in conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah. In the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, Syria refrained from entering the fray, even though it supported Hezbollah diplomatically and logistically. This strategic neutrality allowed Syria to avoid the devastating consequences of direct warfare with Israel. It is likely that the same approach will be followed now.

The Syrian government is aware that a war could lead to renewed insurgencies within its own borders

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

However, the influx of refugees from Lebanon is already taking a toll on Syria’s fragile stability. With more than 250,000 Lebanese refugees entering Syrian territory, the already stretched resources of the country are being tested. In a country that has not yet fully recovered from its own refugee crisis during the civil war, this new wave of displaced people could further destabilize Syria’s economy, weaken public services and strain social cohesion. The country’s infrastructure is still fragile and the addition of a large refugee population could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, potentially leading to unrest.

It is also important to point out that wars are inherently unpredictable and, while Syria may not be directly involved in the conflict with Israel at the moment, there is always the possibility that the war in Lebanon could fully spill over into Syrian territory.

Moreover, Syria could become a battleground for proxy conflicts between Israel and Iran. Instead of engaging in direct warfare with Israel, Iran may opt to use Syrian territory as a staging ground for attacks against Israeli targets, further entangling Syria in the conflict. Such a scenario could inadvertently draw Damascus deeper into the war, even if the government tries to avoid it.

In conclusion, while Israel’s war on Hezbollah will most likely have a negative impact on Syria, it is expected to continue avoiding direct military involvement. Engaging in a war with Israel does not serve Syria’s interests at this time. The country is still recovering from its civil war and its military and economic capabilities are too weak to handle a full-scale regional conflict. However, the ongoing war in Lebanon and the influx of refugees could create spillover effects that Syria cannot ignore, potentially drawing the country into a wider conflict against its will.

The region remains volatile and the situation could rapidly change depending on how the war evolves and how external actors like Iran and Israel choose to maneuver within this complex geopolitical landscape.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh