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WASHINGTON: The Gaza ceasefire clinched Wednesday was a bittersweet victory for US President Joe Biden days before he hands over the White House to Donald Trump, who claimed credit — and, most experts say, deserves some.
Biden first proposed the outlines of the deal between Israel and Hamas on May 31 but diplomatic efforts repeatedly came up short, even when Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned in Tel Aviv in August that it may have been the last chance for a deal.
Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff marched into Netanyahu’s office on Saturday, forcing the Israeli leader to break the sabbath, and pushed to seal the ceasefire.
The timing has echoes of a 1981 deal on US hostages in Iran, freed from 444 days of captivity moments after Republican Ronald Reagan succeeded Democrat Jimmy Carter, although this time the outgoing and incoming administrations worked together.
In scenes unprecedented in recent US history, Witkoff and Biden’s Middle East adviser Brett McGurk met jointly with the emir of Qatar — a key intermediary between Israel and Hamas — when sealing the deal.
Trump quickly boasted that the “epic” deal “could only have happened” due to his election as US president in November.
Asked if Trump deserved credit, Biden quipped: “Is that a joke?“
Speaking hours before a previously scheduled farewell address to the nation, the outgoing president said he included the Trump team in negotiations so that the United States was “speaking with one voice.”
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said it was not unexpected for all sides to seek credit for positive news.
“What I can say is, the president got it done,” she said, referring to Biden.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the Trump team’s presence was about demonstrating “continuity” rather than the Republican exerting new pressure.
Biden faced heated criticism from the left of his Democratic Party during its unsuccessful election year over his staunch support of Israel since Palestinian group Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.
Biden authorized billions of dollars in weapons for Israel’s relentless retaliatory campaign on Gaza, despite criticizing the strategic US ally for the civilian death toll — which authorities in Gaza say is in the tens of thousands.
“The Biden administration was terrified of the political cost of being seen to be pressing Israel in any way,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of the rights group Democracy for the Arab World Now.
Trump, while vowing to be even more pro-Israel, was able to make clear to Netanyahu that “I do not want to inherit this,” Whitson said.
“It made me think that all of this would have been possible months ago and we could have saved thousands of Palestinian lives,” she said.
Trump had warned Hamas of “hell to pay” if it did not agree to a deal, which includes in its first phase the release of 33 hostages seized on October 7.
David Khalfa, an expert on Israel at the Jean Jaures Foundation in Paris, said that Trump’s unpredictability likely impacted Hamas.
He also pointed to Netanyahu’s political position heading a hard-right but shaky coalition government.
“There is today an ideological alignment between the American populist right and the Israeli prime minister. So he has very weak room to maneuver against a Trump who doesn’t face the pressures of reelection,” said Khalfa.
Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said a desire by Israel and others for the right optics as Trump takes over could have played a role in sealing the deal.
But a larger factor than Trump was the changing dynamics in the region — the major blows inflicted both on Hamas and its patron Iran, he said.
Israel has devastated Iranian ally Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s own air defenses, with Tehran’s main ally in the Arab world, Syria’s Bashar Assad, ousted last month by rebel forces.
“I don’t think any of the threats and bluster that we saw from Trump were a huge factor on either side. I think it’s mostly a baby that’s fathered by Biden and his team,” Katulis said.
“But I think the sense that there were big question marks on what was coming might have motivated those who were stonewalling,” he said.
Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed that the uncertainty following Trump’s victory contributed to the deal.
Israel and Hamas were negotiating “under the terms that each side had become familiar with” and knew there was a high risk “that the parameters were about to change.”
And if the deal falls apart?
“Then it doesn’t matter who implemented it; there will be plenty of blame to go around,” Alterman said.