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ASTANA: Azerbaijani and US officials believe a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the deadly crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet, media reports and a US official said Thursday, as the Kremlin cautioned against “hypotheses” over the disaster.
The Azerbaijan Airlines jet crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau, an oil and gas hub, on Wednesday after going off course for undetermined reasons.
Thirty-eight of the 67 people on board died.
The Embraer 190 aircraft was supposed to fly northwest from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to the city of Grozny in Chechnya, southern Russia, but instead diverted far off course across the Caspian Sea.
An investigation is underway, with pro-government Azerbaijani website Caliber citing unnamed officials as saying they believed a Russian missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defense system downed the plane.
The claim was also reported by The New York Times, broadcaster Euronews and the Turkish news agency Anadolu.
Some aviation and military experts said the plane might have been accidentally shot by Russian air defense systems because it was flying in an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported.
A former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency said there appeared to be “a lot of shrapnel” damage on the wreckage.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the damage was “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed with a surface-to-air missile by Russia-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions.”
Euronews cited Azerbaijani government sources as saying that “shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight.”
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said early indications suggested a Russian anti-aircraft system struck the plane.
Kazakhstan news agency Kazinform cited a regional prosecutor as saying that two black-box flight recorders had been recovered.
Azerbaijan Airlines initially said the plane flew through a flock of birds, before withdrawing the statement.
Kazakh officials said 38 people had been killed and there were 29 survivors, including three children.
Jalil Aliyev, the father of flight attendant Hokume Aliyeva, told AFP that this was supposed to have been her last flight before starting a job as a lawyer for the airline.
“Why did her young life have to end so tragically?” the man said in a trembling voice before hanging up the phone.
Eleven of the injured are in intensive care, the Kazakh health ministry said.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared Thursday a day of mourning and canceled a planned visit to Russia for an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of former Soviet nations.
“I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash... and wish a speedy recovery to the injured,” Aliyev said in a social media post Wednesday.
The Flight Radar website showed the plane deviating from its normal route, crossing the Caspian Sea and then circling over the area where it eventually crashed near Aktau, on the eastern shore of the sea.
Kazakhstan said the plane was carrying 37 Azerbaijani passengers, six Kazakhs, three Kyrgyz and 16 Russians.
A Kazakh woman told the local branch of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) she was near where the plane crashed and rushed to the site to help survivors.
“They were covered in blood. They were crying. They were calling for help,” said the woman, who gave her name as Elmira.
She said they saved some teenagers.
“I’ll never forget their look, full of pain and despair,” said Elmira. “A girl pleaded: ‘Save my mother, my mother is back there’.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with Aliyev and “expressed his condolences in connection with the crash,” Peskov told a news conference.

KABUL: The UN mission to Afghanistan on Thursday called for an investigation into Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan, in which the Taliban government said 46 people were killed, including civilians.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said it had “received credible reports that dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed in airstrikes by Pakistan’s military forces in Paktika province, Afghanistan, on 24 December.”
“International law obliges military forces to take necessary precautions to prevent civilian harm,” the agency said in a statement, adding an “investigation is needed to ensure accountability.”
The Taliban government said the 46 deceased were mainly women and children, with another six wounded, mostly children.
An AFP journalist saw several wounded children in a hospital in the provincial capital Sharan, including one receiving an IV and another with a bandaged head.
A Pakistan security official told AFP on Wednesday the bombardment had targeted “terrorist hideouts” and killed at least 20 militants, saying claims that “civilians are being harmed are baseless and misleading.”
On a press trip to the area organized by Taliban authorities, AFP journalists saw four mud brick buildings reduced to rubble in three sites around 20-30 kilometers (10-20 miles) from the Pakistan border.
AFP spoke to multiple residents who said the strikes hit in the late evening, breaking doors and windows in villages and destroying homes and an Islamic school.
Several residents reported pulling bodies from the rubble after strikes targeted houses, killing multiple members of the same families.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Borders and Tribal Affairs Noorullah Noori called the attack “a brutal, arrogant invasion.”
“This is unacceptable and won’t be left unanswered,” he said during the site visit.
Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch did not confirm the strikes but told a media briefing on Thursday: “Our security personnel conduct operations in border areas to protect Pakistani from terror groups, including TTP.”
She was referring to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Pakistan’s homegrown Taliban group which shares a common ideology with its Afghan counterpart.
The TTP last week claimed a raid on an army outpost near the border with Afghanistan in which Pakistan said 16 soldiers were killed.
Baloch said Pakistan prioritized dialogue with Afghanistan, and that Islamabad’s special envoy, Sadiq Khan, was in Kabul meeting with officials where “matters of security” and “terror groups including TTP” were discussed.
The strikes were the latest spike in hostilities on the frontier between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with border tensions between the two countries escalating since the Taliban government seized power in 2021.
Islamabad has accused Kabul’s authorities of harboring militant fighters, allowing them to strike on Pakistani soil with impunity — allegations Kabul denies.