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Oil Updates – crude rises on risk of broadening Middle East conflict

Oil Updates – crude rises on risk of broadening Middle East conflict
A section of the BP ETAP (Eastern Trough Area Project) oil platform in the North Sea, around 100 miles east of Aberdeen, Scotland. File/AFP
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Updated 01 August 2024

Oil Updates – crude rises on risk of broadening Middle East conflict

Oil Updates – crude rises on risk of broadening Middle East conflict
  • Global benchmark Brent crude futures rose 71 cents to $81.55 a barrel
  • Intermediate crude futures gained 76 cents to $78.67 a barrel

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose during Asian trade on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran raised the threat of a wider Middle East conflict and concern over its impact on oil.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures rose 71 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $81.55 a barrel by 8:05 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 76 cents, or 1 percent, to $78.67 a barrel.
The most active contracts on both benchmarks jumped about 4 percent in the previous session.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday. His death came less than 24 hours after the most senior military commander of Lebanon-based Hezbollah was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut.
The killings fueled concern that the 10-month-old war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas was turning into a wider Middle East war, which could lead to disruption in oil supply from the region.
“Oil markets are justifiably worried that the assassination of Haniyeh will bring Iran more directly into the war with Israel. And that could put at risk Iran’s oil supply and related infrastructure,” said analyst Vivek Dhar at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a client note.
Dhar said markets will be worried about Iran’s ability to escalate tension via its control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Blockading the key waterway threatens the transport of 15-20 percent of global oil supply. With limited spare pipeline capacity to bypass such a blockade, the Strait of Hormuz looms as a major potential disruption risk for oil markets,” said Dhar.
Also pushing up prices was a set of data releases from the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, and a weaker dollar.
Robust export demand pushed US crude oil stockpiles lower by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended July 26 to 433 million barrels, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index extended losses on Thursday from the previous session, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates but left the door open for a cut in September. A weaker dollar can boost oil demand from investors holding other currencies.
In the longer term, however, investors are not confident of Chinese demand, said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, adding that this concern will continue to limit the upside in oil prices.
Official data from China on Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity slipped to a five-month low in July as factories grappled with falling new orders and low prices.
A private sector survey on Thursday also showed China’s manufacturing activity in July shrank for the first time in nine months as new orders declined.


Oil Updates – market sees losses on tight supply but cloudy demand caps gains

Oil Updates – market sees losses on tight supply but cloudy demand caps gains
Updated 1 min 12 sec ago

Oil Updates – market sees losses on tight supply but cloudy demand caps gains

Oil Updates – market sees losses on tight supply but cloudy demand caps gains

SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on signs of near-term supply tightness but remained near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.

Brent futures rose 17 cents, or 0.24 percent, to $72.06 a barrel by 7:20 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 14 cents, or 0.21 percent, at $68.26.

“Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment.

“We may expect prices to consolidate around current levels for longer,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding the recent attempt for a bounce was quickly sold into.

“The absence of a more direct fiscal stimulus out of China has been casting a shadow on oil demand outlook, coupled with the prospects of higher US oil production with a Trump presidency and looming OPEC+’s plans for an output raise,” Yeap added.

In its monthly report on Tuesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.

Oil prices settled up 0.1 percent on Tuesday following the news, after falling by about 5 percent during the two previous sessions.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.

The International Energy Agency, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday.

“The re-election of former President Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view,” Barclays analysts wrote.

“Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term” given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said.

However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays.

Donald Trump’s expected secretary of state pick, US Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hard-line stance on Iran, China and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world’s largest consumer.

Two US central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates are acting as a brake on inflation that is still above the 2 percent mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts.

The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50 percent-4.75 percent range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.

US weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day following Monday’s Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 00:30 a.m. Saudi time on Thursday.

Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8. 


COP29 Day 3: World leaders address urgent climate goals at high-level session

COP29 Day 3: World leaders address urgent climate goals at high-level session
Updated 26 min 32 sec ago

COP29 Day 3: World leaders address urgent climate goals at high-level session

COP29 Day 3: World leaders address urgent climate goals at high-level session

RIYADH: World leaders entered their third day of climate talks at COP29 in Baku, marking a critical juncture in discussions focused on climate action and multilateral cooperation. 

The High-Level Segment continued with addresses from heads of state and government as countries reiterated commitments to combat climate change.

Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah emphasized his country’s long-term strategy for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction, stating that climate change “is a global concern and a threat to many countries.” 

Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah. Screenshot

Highlighting the visible impacts of climate change, he cited “rising temperatures, dust storms, and heavy rain” as growing challenges in the region.

Kuwait aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2060, supported by strategic initiatives and a significant shift toward renewable energy. The country plans to generate 50 percent of its electricity from solar power, a major component of its national sustainability efforts, Al-Sabah said.

The session opened with Shina Ansari, Iran’s vice president, followed by Joseph Owondault Berre, Gabon’s vice president. Berre underscored the importance of multilateralism, calling it “the only weapon that can tackle issues associated with climate change.” He emphasized the need for “collective action based on trust, fairness, and shared responsibility,” highlighting that global collaboration remains critical in addressing climate impacts equitably.

As COP29 progresses, world leaders are expected to announce further initiatives to address climate threats through collaborative, international approaches.


IMF delegation in Pakistan, discusses ‘key benchmarks’ of $7 billion loan program — official 

IMF delegation in Pakistan, discusses ‘key benchmarks’ of $7 billion loan program — official 
Updated 13 November 2024

IMF delegation in Pakistan, discusses ‘key benchmarks’ of $7 billion loan program — official 

IMF delegation in Pakistan, discusses ‘key benchmarks’ of $7 billion loan program — official 
  • IMF has said Porter’s visit is not part of the first review of loan program
  • First review not scheduled to take place before the first quarter of 2025

ISLAMABAD: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation is in Islamabad this week and will hold discussions with top Pakistani officials on the “key benchmarks” of a $7 billion loan program approved in September, a finance ministry official said on Tuesday.

The IMF delegation led by Pakistan mission chief Nathan Porter arrived in Islamabad on Monday on an unplanned visit. The team is expected to hold meetings until Friday with top officials from ministries such as finance and energy and the Federal Board of Revenue, the main tax collection agency, to collect data on “loan program performance to date,” a finance ministry official told Arab News, seeking anonymity. 

The IMF has said Porter’s visit is not part of the first review of the loan program, which is not scheduled to take place before the first quarter of 2025. 

“Some key benchmarks of the loan program will come under discussion during the meetings, as Islamabad faces some revenue shortfall and a recent botched attempt to privatize the Pakistan International Airlines,” the finance ministry official said. 

“Matters like external financing gap and reforms in the energy sector are also expected to be discussed with the IMF delegation.”

The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan in July for a 37-month $7 billion bailout package, which the Fund’s Executive Board approved in September. This was the 25th loan program that Pakistan has obtained since 1958.

In a statement released on Tuesday, the ministry of finance said a delegation led by Porter had an “initial meeting” with finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

Minister of State for Finance Ali Pervez Malik, Governor State Bank Jameel Ahmed, Federal Board of Revenue Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial and senior finance ministry officials were also present in the meeting, the ministry said.

Islamabad secured the bailout loan, critical to keeping its $350 billion fragile economy afloat, after taking painful measures such as hiking fuel and food prices and implementing reforms to broaden the country’s tax base and privatize state-owned entities.

“INTERIM CHECKS”

Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment have improved in recent months, which analysts say has led to a bullish trend in the country’s stock market.

Syed Atif Zafar, the chief economist at Topline Securities, said the IMF delegation’s meetings with Pakistani officials were part of “interim checks” to ensure a successful review of the loan facility next year. 

“The government failed to achieve the tax revenue target in the first quarter that has perhaps necessitated this IMF visit, but still the authorities have multiple options and time to overcome this gap,” he told Arab News. 

“The good thing at this point is that all structural and quantitative benchmarks of the loan program are on track.”

Tahir Abbas, a senior economist and head of research at Arif Habib Limited, said Pakistan last month requested the IMF for a $1 billion climate financing facility to mitigate climate risk, which would be discussed during the ongoing IMF visit.

“Pakistan’s revenue shortfall of around Rs200 billion ($720 million) in the first quarter has mainly necessitated this IMF visit,” he told Arab News. 

“The finance ministry will now inform the IMF delegation about the possible revenue measures to overcome the shortfall and cut the expenditures.”


NEOM board of directors announces leadership change

NEOM board of directors announces leadership change
Updated 13 November 2024

NEOM board of directors announces leadership change

NEOM board of directors announces leadership change
  • Head of Public Investment Fund’s Local Real Estate Division since 2018, Al-Mudaifer has a deep and strategic understanding of NEOM and its projects

NEOM: The NEOM Board of Directors on Tuesday announced the appointment of Aiman Al-Mudaifer as acting CEO of the company. Al-Mudaifer assumes leadership of NEOM, following Nadhmi Al-Nasr’s departure.

As NEOM enters a new phase of delivery, this new leadership will ensure operational continuity, agility and efficiency to match the overall vision and objectives of the project.

Al-Mudaifer takes the helm of the organization with the support of a strong leadership team across NEOM’s regions, sectors and departments.

Head of Public Investment Fund’s Local Real Estate Division since 2018, Al-Mudaifer has a deep and strategic understanding of NEOM and its projects.

In his role at PIF, Al-Mudaifer oversees all local real estate investments and infrastructure projects. He is also a board member of multiple prominent companies within the Kingdom.

NEOM is a fundamental pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and progress continues on all operations as planned, as we deliver the next phase of our vast portfolio of projects including THE LINE, Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and The Islands of NEOM. 

Through these projects, NEOM seeks to achieve harmony between livability, business and nature, and to create a better future for current and future generations.


Maldives, Bulgaria push for greater climate action, financing

Maldives, Bulgaria push for greater climate action, financing
Updated 13 November 2024

Maldives, Bulgaria push for greater climate action, financing

Maldives, Bulgaria push for greater climate action, financing
  • Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu said small island developing states require trillions of dollars in climate finance
  • Bulgarian President Rumen Radev addressed the global impact of climate-related disasters

RIYADH: Insufficient financing continues to be a significant barrier preventing many countries, especially underdeveloped nations, from meeting their climate goals, according to the President of the Maldives.

Speaking on the second day of COP29, held in Azerbaijan from Nov. 11-22, Mohamed Muizzu emphasized that small island developing states require trillions, not billions, of dollars in climate finance.

“It is the lack of finance that inhibits our ambitions, which is why this COP, the finance COP, we need to deliver the new climate finance goal. This must reflect the true scale of the climate crisis. The need is in trillions, not billions,” Muizzu said.

He added, “It must consider the special circumstances of small island developing states — it must include adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage.”

Muizzu also reiterated the importance of the environment for his country, stating: “You have called for stronger climate action. Our call has not changed. Our cause has not strayed because, for us, the environment and the ocean are more than resources. They are our cultural identity.”

In a similar vein, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev addressed the global impact of climate-related disasters, emphasizing that no region is immune to the deadly and costly consequences of climate change.

“Bulgaria is committed not only to being part of regional and energy cooperation initiatives across Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Black Sea region but also beyond, by strengthening the links between the European Union and non-EU countries who share our priorities on climate neutrality, just energy transition, energy security, and low-carbon technological innovation,” Radev said.

He further called for broader action, stating, “All parties should undertake greater efforts to integrate climate change adaptation and resilience into all policies and strategies.”