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Election wave and AI disinformation raise stakes in 2024

Election wave and AI disinformation raise stakes in 2024
Workers sort out ballot boxes before dispatching them to polling stations ahead of general election, at the Election Commission office in Peshawar, Pakistan on July 22, 2018. (REUTERS/File)
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Updated 19 January 2024

Election wave and AI disinformation raise stakes in 2024

Election wave and AI disinformation raise stakes in 2024
  • 2024 has been labelled a “make-or-break” year for democracy, with crucial votes due in more than 60 countries
  • Votes are expected in India, South Africa, Pakistan, Britain, Indonesia, United States, as well as the European Union

PARIS: With elections due in countries representing half the world’s population and new technologies turbo-charging disinformation, 2024 will be a major stress test for politics in the age of AI.
2024 has been labelled a “make-or-break” year for democracy, with crucial votes due in more than 60 countries, including India, South Africa, Pakistan, Britain, Indonesia and the United States, as well as the European Union.
The first major test of how to survive an onslaught of AI-powered disinformation has already taken place.
Taiwan voters backed Lai Ching-te for president last week despite a massive disinformation campaign against him, which experts say was orchestrated by China.
Beijing regards Lai as a dangerous separatist for asserting Taiwan’s independence, and TikTok was flooded with conspiracy theories and derogatory statements about him in the run-up to the vote.
An AFP Fact-Check investigation found several such videos originated on Douyin, China’s version of the app.
How things pan out in other countries remains to be seen, however. Generative AI is threatening to exacerbate deepening trends of polarization and a loss of trust in the mainstream media.
Already last year, fake images of Donald Trump being arrested or Joe Biden announcing a general mobilization to support Ukraine have shown how far the technology has progressed.
The last, easy tells for fakery, notably, AI’s struggles with details such as fingers, are rapidly disappearing, blunting detection mechanisms.
And the stakes are high.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) ranked disinformation as its number one threat over the next two years.
Undermining the legitimacy of elections could lead to internal conflicts and terrorism, and even “state collapse” in extreme cases, it warned.
AI-powered disinformation is being deployed by groups linked in particular to Russia, China and Iran, seeking to “shape and disrupt” elections in rival countries, said analysis group Recorded Future.
The EU elections in June will likely be hit by campaigns aimed at undermining the cohesion of the bloc and its support for Ukraine, said Julien Nocetti, a Russia specialist for the French Institute of International Relations.
It would not be the first time.
The “Doppelganger operation” launched in early 2022 used clones of well-known media and public institutions to spread pro-Russian talking points, particularly about Ukraine.
French authorities and Meta, owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, linked it to the Kremlin.
Paradoxically, repressive regimes could also use the threat of disinformation to justify greater censorship and other rights violations, the WEF said.
States hope to fight back with legislation, but they are working at a glacial pace compared to the exponential progress in AI.
The forthcoming Digital India Act and the EU’s Digital Services Act will require platforms to target disinformation and remove illegal content. Experts are skeptical, however, about their enforcement capabilities.
China and the EU are both working on comprehensive AI laws, but they will take time. The EU law is unlikely to be completed before 2026.
In October, US President Joe Biden issued an executive order on AI safety standards in October.
But critics say it lacks teeth, while some lawmakers fear that over-regulation will hamper their tech industry and benefit rivals.
Under pressure to act, tech firms have introduced their own initiatives.
Meta says advertisers will have to reveal if their content used generative AI, while Microsoft has a tool for political candidates to authenticate their content with a digital watermark.
But the platforms increasingly rely for verification on... AI.
“Automating the fight against disinformation doesn’t seem like the best way to understand hostile strategies,” said Nocetti.


IMF staff concludes Pakistan visit, urges Islamabad to decrease state intervention in economy

IMF staff concludes Pakistan visit, urges Islamabad to decrease state intervention in economy
Updated 33 sec ago

IMF staff concludes Pakistan visit, urges Islamabad to decrease state intervention in economy

IMF staff concludes Pakistan visit, urges Islamabad to decrease state intervention in economy
  • IMF delegation visited Pakistan from Nov. 12-15 to discuss economic policies, reform efforts
  • Both sides agreed Islamabad needs to mobilize revenue from “untapped tax bases,” says IMF official

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced this week it had concluded its state visit to Pakistan, calling on Islamabad to decrease state intervention in the economy, mobilize revenue via tax reforms and adopt prudent fiscal policies. 
The IMF released its statement late Friday as a delegation led by its Pakistan mission chief, Nathan Porter, completed a five-day trip to the country during which it discussed the performance of a $7 billion loan program approved in September. 
The IMF has clarified Porter’s visit is not part of the first review of the loan program, which is not scheduled to take place before the first quarter of 2025.
The international lender has repeatedly called on Pakistan to undertake tax and energy reforms as well as privatize state-owned assets which it says are critical to revitalize its fragile $350 billion economy. 
“Structural energy reforms and constructive efforts are critical to restore the sector’s viability, and Pakistan should take steps to decrease state intervention in the economy and enhance competition, which will help foster the development of a dynamic private sector,” Porter said in a statement. 
The IMF official said both sides agreed with the need for Islamabad to continue prudent fiscal and monetary policies, mobilizing revenue from “untapped tax bases” and transferring greater social and development responsibilities to provinces.
“Strong program implementation can create a more prosperous and more inclusive Pakistan, improving living standards for all Pakistanis,” Porter said. 
In an earlier statement on Friday, the IMF urged Pakistan to digitalize its budget preparation and execution processes to improve fiscal monitoring and reporting to overcome deviations from the planned budgets.
IMF loan bailouts are critical for Pakistan, which narrowly avoided a sovereign default last year before clinching a last-gasp $3 billion loan from the international lender. 
Pakistan’s finance minister has repeatedly stressed implementing painful reforms to ensure the country does not seek loans repeatedly from the global lender at exorbitant interest rates.


Pakistan’s Ayla Majid becomes first South Asian and Muslim to be elected ACCA president

Pakistan’s Ayla Majid becomes first South Asian and Muslim to be elected ACCA president
Updated 16 November 2024

Pakistan’s Ayla Majid becomes first South Asian and Muslim to be elected ACCA president

Pakistan’s Ayla Majid becomes first South Asian and Muslim to be elected ACCA president
  • Ayla Majid is the CEO of a firm that advises on decarbonization, sustainability and energy transition 
  • She will lead 252,500 members and 526,000 future members of ACCA across 180 countries during her tenure

ISLAMABAD: Ayla Majid, the chief executive officer of a firm that advises on decarbonization, sustainability and energy transition, made history this week after becoming the first South Asian and Muslim to get elected as president of the global accountancy body ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants). 
Majid will lead more than 252,500 members and 526,000 future members of ACCA across 180 countries during her year-long term of office, ACCA wrote on its website on Friday. 
Currently the founder and CEO of Planetive Middle East and Planetive Pakistan, Majid has over 20 years of experience in energy, transaction advisory, mergers and acquisitions, investments and corporate governance. 
She holds a Master of Business Administration degree from the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) and a Bachelor of Law degree from the University of London.
“It’s an honor and a deeply meaningful moment, not just for me but for so many who see themselves in this achievement,” Majid told Arab News via email on Friday. 
“Breaking these barriers reflects the values of inclusion and diversity that ACCA embodies,” she added. “Personally, it’s a testament to the power of resilience and the importance of representation.”
Majid said the accounting and finance profession globally is evolving rapidly in response to the demands of a changing world, explaining that issues such as sustainability, digital transformation and evolving regulatory landscapes are reshaping the skills accountants need.
“Additionally, we must ensure the profession remains relevant in addressing societal challenges such as climate change and economic inequality,” she said. 
“ACCA can play a pivotal role by continuously enhancing its qualifications to include skills in sustainability reporting, digital transformation, and strategic leadership.”
Majid called for global collaboration and championing inclusion, saying that through such initiatives, ACCA can prepare its members to not just respond to challenges but “lead with purpose and impact.”
“My vision for ACCA is to continue being a catalyst for positive change, working alongside diverse group of partners and collaborate more on global agendas,” Majid said. 
“By strengthening our advocacy on global issues like climate action and economic resilience, we can shape a better future,” she added.


Pakistan keeps prices of petroleum products unchanged till Nov. 30

Pakistan keeps prices of petroleum products unchanged till Nov. 30
Updated 16 November 2024

Pakistan keeps prices of petroleum products unchanged till Nov. 30

Pakistan keeps prices of petroleum products unchanged till Nov. 30
  • Prices of high speed diesel, petrol to remain unchanged at Rs255.14 per liter and Rs248.38 per liter respectively
  • Pakistan revises prices of petroleum products every fortnight based on variations of prices at international market 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s government announced its decision this week to keep prices of petroleum products unchanged till the next fortnight on Nov. 30, state-run media reported. 
Pakistan revises petroleum prices every fortnight. Petrol is mostly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers in Pakistan while any increase in the price of diesel is considered highly inflationary as it is mostly used to power heavy transport vehicles and particularly adds to the prices of vegetables and other eatables.
“The government has announced on Friday that prices of the petroleum products would remain unchanged during the next fortnight from November 16th to 30th 2024,” the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) reported on Friday. 
As per the latest notification, the price of high speed diesel (HSD) remains unchanged at Rs 255.14 per liter while the price of petrol also remains unchanged at Rs 248.38 per liter. 
“The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority has worked out the prices of petroleum products for the next fortnight based on the price trends in the international market during the last two weeks,” the APP said. 
On Oct. 31, Pakistani authorities increased the price of petrol from Rs247.03 per liter to Rs248.38 per liter, saying it decided to do so “based on the price variation in the international market.”


Pakistan rejects sole $36 million bid for national flag carrier

Pakistan rejects sole $36 million bid for national flag carrier
Updated 16 November 2024

Pakistan rejects sole $36 million bid for national flag carrier

Pakistan rejects sole $36 million bid for national flag carrier
  • Blue World City, a real estate development company, last month bid $36 million for state-owned PIA airline
  • Pakistan seeks to offload 51-100% stake in national airline to reform state-owned enterprises as per IMF deal

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Cabinet Committee on Privatization (CCOP) this week rejected a $36 million bid from a real estate development company to acquire 60 percent stakes in the government-owned Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), state-run media reported. 
Pakistan’s process to privatize the PIA encountered difficulties last month when its final bidding round for the national flag carrier attracted just one bid of Rs10 billion ($36 million) for a 60 percent stake in the airline. The bid was made by real estate development company Blue World City. 
The cash-strapped country is looking to offload a 51-100 percent stake in the debt-ridden PIA to raise funds and reform state-owned enterprises as envisaged under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. 
A meeting of the CCOP chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar on Friday discussed Blue World City’s bid and the Privatization Commission’s (PC) suggestion to reject it. 
“The Cabinet Committee on Privatization (CCOP) rejected the bid of Rs10 billion submitted by the Blue World City for the divestment of 60 percent shares of the Pakistan International Airlines, accepting the recommendations of the Privatization Commission Board,” the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) reported on Friday.
The CCOP reiterated the government’s resolve to divest the national flag carrier through privatization or government-to-government (G2G) mode. 
“The body noted with satisfaction the assessment of the aviation division on healthy PIACL’s finances,” APP said. 
Pakistan’s government disclosed last year that it had signed a contract with the New York City administration to resume business activities at the Roosevelt Hotel, which is owned by the PIA. 
The hotel was closed by Pakistani authorities in October 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic, as the country’s economy weakened and the aviation sector faced significant losses. However, the facility accumulated liabilities of around $25 million in taxes and other overheads.
“The committee also constituted a committee under the convenorship of the minister of state for finance to evaluate possible transaction options for the privatization of Roosevelt Hotel and modes to be adopted in the light of available legal provisions,” APP said. 
Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province and a business group in Canada led by a Pakistani expat have both expressed their interest in acquiring the national flag carrier. 
The government had pre-qualified six groups for PIA’s privatization process in June, but only real-estate development company Blue World City participated in the bidding process last month, placing a bid that was below the government-set minimum price of Rs85 billion ($304 million). 
The disposal of PIA is a step former governments have steered away from, as it has been highly unpopular given the number of layoffs that would likely result from it.
Other concerns raised by potential bidders for the PIA stake included inconsistent government communication, unattractive terms and taxes on the sector, and the flag carrier’s legacy issues and reputation.


IMF urges Pakistan to digitalize budget preparation for better fiscal monitoring

IMF urges Pakistan to digitalize budget preparation for better fiscal monitoring
Updated 49 min 28 sec ago

IMF urges Pakistan to digitalize budget preparation for better fiscal monitoring

IMF urges Pakistan to digitalize budget preparation for better fiscal monitoring
  • The international lender says budget processes still involve manual and paper-based steps despite reforms
  • IMF has pointed out Pakistan’s interest payments absorb 60 percent of budgeted revenue due to public debt

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested Pakistan to digitalize its budget preparation and execution processes to improve fiscal monitoring and reporting to overcome deviations from the planned budgets.
In a technical assistance report to improve budget practice brought out this week, the international lender said Pakistan needed to take strong control over the budget in the coming years.
The report came as an IMF delegation led by Pakistan mission chief, Nathan Porter, completed a five-day trip to the country in which it discussed the performance of a $7 billion loan program approved in September. The IMF has said Porter’s visit is not part of the first review of the loan program, which is not scheduled to take place before the first quarter of 2025.
“An examination of Pakistan’s recent budgetary outcomes reveals substantial deviations from planned budgets,” the lender said in the report. “While these discrepancies are partially due to an unstable external environment and political uncertainties, the establishment of stronger fiscal institutions can help deliver a more credible budget, tighten its execution, and prevent policy slippages.”
The IMF pointed out that despite several reforms, the budget processes still involved significant manual and paper-based steps.
“Fully digitalized processes are yet to be prepared and implemented in the Financial Accounting and Budgeting System,” it said in the report. “The Finance Division has designed a data warehouse to store fiscal data and made available a set of dashboards for use by stakeholders, but this is hampered by the lack of timely data provided by some key entities. As a result, fiscal reporting is not yet comprehensive and timely.”
It added that regulatory framework and fiscal data governance practices, including data exchange, did not fully address these challenges.
The IMF also noted Pakistan’s public debt had increased considerably, and interest payments were now absorbing 60 percent of budgeted revenue.
However, it recognized that multiple external shocks and the unprecedented floods in 2022 buffeted the economy and the government’s fiscal position.
“These shocks have been compounded by policy slippages including unbudgeted subsidies, and delays in implementing revenue measures,” it continued, adding the authorities now had the difficult task of converting a primary deficit of 1.3 percent of GDP for FY23 into a primary surplus for FY24. It also emphasized continued fiscal restraint, while preserving essential social and development spending.
The international lender suggested the finance division to require line ministries to prepare their budget submissions within a binding budget ceiling and explain any request for additional resources.
“Consider a reorganization of the Finance Division to reduce fragmentation and improve effective decision-making,” the reported suggested. “Support the reorganization with a functional review of the Division’s structure and staffing.”