IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan/JEDDAH: A senior member of Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary died in Syria on Monday in possibly the most consequential targeted killing the region has seen since the 鈥渟hadow commander鈥� Qassem Soleimani was eliminated by an American drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020.

Iran鈥檚 state-run media described Sayyed Reza Mousavi as 鈥渙ne of the oldest advisers of the IRGC in Syria鈥� and close with Soleimani, who headed the IRGC鈥檚 Quds Force, which plots Tehran鈥檚 extraterritorial operations throughout the Middle East, arming and funding numerous proxy militias that do Iran鈥檚 bidding against its enemies.

鈥淚 would call Mousavi the second Qassem Soleimani. He knew everybody, had good contacts with people on the ground, militias and heads of groups,鈥� Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami, founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) in Riyadh, told Arab News.

He said Mousavi had 鈥渕ore knowledge of the realities on the ground鈥� in Syria than anyone else, including his boss and current Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, who Al-Sulami said is more knowledgeable about other countries and regions such as Afghanistan and Central Asia than about Syria and the Middle East.

鈥淲hen it came to Middle East, it was Qassem Soleimani and Reza Mousavi, the second Qassem Soleimani,鈥� he said. 鈥淭herefore, it is a very big loss for Iran and a big success for those who are trying to minimize the presence of militias in Syria.鈥�

Iran鈥檚 ambassador to Syria said that Mousavi had been working in the Iranian embassy in an official capacity as a diplomat and died in an Israeli missile strike in Sayyida Zeinab, a town in southern Damascus.

IRGC media in Iran said Mousavi had the rank of brigadier general. He had reportedly lived in Syria for 30 years and had an office at the Syrian Ministry of Defense.

Israel has refused to either confirm or deny its role in the killing, as is common in the case of strikes against Iran-related targets in Syria attributed to it.

Al-Sulami is not surprised that a country or spy agency was able to get its hands on the intelligence it needed for the high-profile elimination.

鈥淚 think intelligence agencies in countries like the UK, the US and, more importantly, Israel know very well the significance of such people in Syria, even though these individuals try to be very quiet and keep a low profile,鈥� he said.

鈥淢ost of the world鈥檚 intelligence services have their own sources on the ground. There is no secrecy in Syria, and Mousavi has been there for at least 30 years. He had been active there in coordination with the IRGC and militias like Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun, from countries like Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, and groups coming from other countries.鈥�

Mousavi would undoubtedly have been a tempting target for Israel since he reportedly began organizing the transfer of arms and funds to Iran鈥檚 militia proxies in Syria along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has amassed a large missile arsenal in the years since Israel fought its last large-scale war with it in 2006.

鈥淚t has been evident for some time that Israel has seriously compromised the IRGC鈥檚 international spy-terrorist apparatus 鈥� and, indeed, has very good access within Iran itself,鈥� independent Middle East analyst Kyle Orton told Arab News.

鈥淭he error in the Israeli policy has been in racking up these tactical victories.鈥�

While Israel focused on thwarting IRGC plots regionally and worldwide, the IRGC continued 鈥渋ts strategic advance, knitting together its regional empire, stretching contiguously across the northern Middle East.鈥�

Israel has launched thousands of intermittent airstrikes against targets throughout Syria since 2013 as part of its 鈥渨ar between the wars鈥� campaign with Iran, itself part of a larger shadow war between those two enemies.

That air campaign aimed to prevent Iran and its militias from transferring sophisticated air defenses and surface-to-surface missiles to Hezbollah via Syria, an effort in which Mousavi is widely reported to have played a key role.

鈥淭he elimination of Reza Mousavi, if carried out by Israel, would be an important departure for a country that has generally targeted the IRGC鈥檚 physical infrastructure in Syria and avoided targeting personnel,鈥� Orton said.

He said the 鈥渇law鈥� in the previous Israeli strategy was the speed at which IRGC bases could be rebuilt after these strikes, leading to the need for repeated strikes against the very same targets.

Meanwhile, the IRGC continued the 鈥渃rucial work鈥� of 鈥渆mbedding Iran鈥檚 influence鈥� in the region through the tending and expansion of human networks with a combination of 鈥渕ilitary training and ideological indoctrination.鈥�

Similar to the aftermath of Soleimani鈥檚 death, Al-Sulami of Rasanah believes the loss of Mousavi will result in greater fragmentation of the Iran-backed groups in Syria in the near future. However, he is doubtful there will be a major escalation between Iran and Israel anytime soon.

鈥淚 think both Iran and Israel are following the same strategy, which is indirect confrontations,鈥� he said.

鈥淚srael is attacking Iran in Syria and other places but they avoid conducting direct military operations inside Iran to avoid any escalations. For Iran, it鈥檚 the same. They try to attack Israelis in Cyprus, Greece, and other countries. That will continue for maybe years to come.鈥�

Orton is doubtful that Mousavi鈥檚 elimination will singlehandedly 鈥渉ave much impact鈥� on Iran鈥檚 control in Syria.

鈥淭he Iranians have been applying the Islamic Revolution鈥檚 model to Syria at a very high-intensity for more than a decade and, as Mousavi鈥檚 personal history attests, the program has been ongoing for much longer than that,鈥� he said.

鈥淚f Mousavi鈥檚 killing is not a one-off, however, and Israel has switched to a policy of targeting senior IRGC personnel in Syria, over time this can have a cumulative impact in destabilizing the Iranian project in that country.鈥�

Such a policy change could result in the IRGC deciding to fire missiles from Yemen and possibly Lebanon.

The Iran-backed Houthis have already escalated attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea and fired at US warships there. The US has also directly accused Iran of responsibility for an attack on Saturday on a chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean, which saw a one-way attack drone hit the vessel 200 nautical miles from the Indian coast, far from the Red Sea.

Orton, too, is skeptical of a major escalation that goes beyond these tit-for-tat incidents, noting that Israeli intelligence has 鈥渂adly infiltrated鈥� the IRGC networks, making it unlikely the powerful paramilitary could 鈥渕anage a 鈥榮pectacular鈥� response.鈥�

He recalled how Iran had 鈥渧ery publicly committed itself鈥� to avenging the 2020 killing of Soleimani in such a fashion. Iran initially responded to his death by firing ballistic missiles at an Iraqi airbase hosting American troops, leaving several American soldiers with traumatic brain injuries.

Incidentally, US forces in Iraqi Kurdistan came under attack on Monday by an explosive-laden militia drone shortly after Mousavi鈥檚 killing. The attack injured three soldiers, leaving one reportedly in critical condition.

The US launched retaliatory airstrikes against militias in Iraq in a move that inevitably increased the risk of escalation in that volatile country 鈥� and possibly beyond.