Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank has calculatedÌýthe risk of a global recession has risen to 34 percent — although it is not yet at a worrying level.
The bank's Recession Probability Indicator increased from 20 percent — which marked the lowest level in its 42-year history.
During the recession of the 1980 and the Global Financial crisis of 2008 the RPI moved above 80 percent before easing down.
The indicator includes 29 select variables with good predictive power across seven different segments: macro, consumer, housing, business, corporate, financial market, and commodity market.Ìý
The bank holds a neutral outlook on commodities because despite outperforming equities by benefiting from high inflation, any future moderation in inflation rates can have a downward effect on commodities.Ìý
Gold, however, will have an overweight outlook because it is a classic hedge on inflation and on the current geopolitical risks.
As for oil, despite the positive outlook it will have for the next twelve months due to possible market shifts into a new supply demand regime, the longer future demand remains uncertain as climate strategy implies change in global energy mix and a shift to deployment of renewables.
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