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DUBAI: The UAE’s nominal GDP is likely to take three years to recover to pre-pandemic levels, although this could be accelerated by the fast rollout of vaccines, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Uncertainties surrounding the effect of vaccinations on the recovery of tourism and hospitality and their efficacy against new coronavirus variants, makes it difficult to predict how much of a boost the UAE’s vaccine program will give the economy, Moody’s said in its annual analysis of the nation’s credit rating.
The UAE has one of the fastest coronavirus vaccine rollouts in the world with 126 doses given per 100. That compares with 87 per 100 in the US, 92 per 100 in the UK and 38 per 100 in ¶¶Òõ¶ÌÊÓƵ.
The UAE’s Aa2 credit rating benefits from a high level of GDP per capita, domestic political stability and the assumed backing of the government of Abu Dhabi, Moody’s said.
The rating is held back by limited institutional transparency, the lack of public data on its offshore assets and elements of the UAE’s public finances, Moody’s said. Public finances’ reliance on the oil and gas industry and regional geopolitical tensions also weigh on the rating, which is two notches below the top Aaa grade.
The UAE’s GDP per capita of $63,590 in purchasing power parity terms is one of the highest among all the countries that Moody’s rates, it said. The size of the economy, at $354 billion of nominal GDP, is in the top quartile of the sovereigns it rates.
While its economy is more diversified than many of its GCC peers, it remains highly dependent on hydrocarbons, Moody’s said. Oil and gas accounted for 22 percent of nominal GDP for the past five years and was about one third before oil prices fell in late 2015.