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Britain’s anticipated, unprecedented withdrawal from the EU creates unique challenges and uncertainty. However, at the same time, as in any crisis, Britain’s divorce from its EU partners also presents opportunities. Without doubt, Britain’s international standing will be damaged immediately post-Brexit; however, it is possible to imagine positive scenarios for its long-term prospects, especially now that Leave-supporting Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a large parliamentary majority. These might be possible if the UK pursues a foreign policy based on the idea of “Global Britain,” as the UK’s policymakers and state stakeholders anticipate. This concept is still under development so this is an appropriate time for discussions and suggestions regarding the possible scenarios in which opportunities can be explored, particularly by which the UK might have deepening relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.

Under the Global Britain idea, the UK can keep its partnership with the member states of the European bloc, develop its “special relationship” with the US and strengthen its relations with the rest of the world. Among these multiple directions of relations-building, the UK may take the opportunity for further partnerships with the GCC states.

Even by losing institutional linkages with the EU following its expected Jan. 31 departure, post-Brexit Britain can keep or renew its relations with key EU partners, especially the alliances with France and Germany, by engaging in so-called informal groupings of countries or “soft” alliances with no formal contract, no decision-making procedure and no enforcement mechanisms. Such informal groupings might occur between partners that do not have close or deep relations with one another. One example is the E3+3, wherein Russia and China partnered with the US and several European nations (France, the UK and Germany), together with the UN, to tackle a specific issue — the Iranian nuclear deal. 

Choosing this model, and by working with European partners, the UK could engage with a number of different issues in the Middle East, especially in the Arab region. These include climate change, as the Arab region is characterized by a fragile desert environment that is among the most vulnerable in the world.  

Post-Brexit Britain is expected to be closer to its traditional ally, Washington. And, with regard to the Middle East, especially the Gulf, it seems the US and UK are already developing “special” relationships. The UK even became involved in the 2019 crisis that saw increasing tensions between the US and Iran. On the one hand, such a partnership with Washington would suggest that the post-Brexit UK would have a close partnership with a global power. At the same time, this will provide challenges as, due to the “special relationship,” the UK can expect to play a role in any tensions or conflicts with opponents of the US, especially Iran. In other words, one challenge of post-Brexit Britain may be that it will have to adapt its policies mainly in order to follow Washington’s objectives in the region.

This might suggest even closer relations with Britain’s historical allies — the GCC states. As the third part of the Global Britain strategy, the UK might further deepen its relations with the Gulf. One possibility is that the UK will conclude a free trade deal with the GCC nations. At the same time, the possibility of another fall in the value of the British pound could also lead to closer cooperation. This would encourage the GCC’s dollar-pegged investors to purchase commercial properties and take advantage of any “Brexit discount.”

At the governmental level, plans for post-Brexit Britain to increase the range of Gulf investments have already been revealed. For example, one outcome of the inaugural meeting of the UK-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council last year was an agreement of about £65 billion ($85 billion) in mutual trade and investment opportunities over the coming years, including direct investment in the UK. Saudi investments in the UK are already estimated to total more than £60 billion.

This increased volume of investment is related to British involvement in Saudi Vision 2030, which provides further post-Brexit cooperation possibilities; as do all GCC state diversification programs. As part of the realization of Saudi Vision 2030, contracts for partnerships in several fields have already been concluded. These include Standard Chartered being granted a banking license in ��������Ƶ and Alderley winning a $10 million Saudi Aramco contract for the in-Kingdom design and manufacture of modular skids.

The UK might leverage its strengths to emerge as ��������Ƶ’s leading partner in realizing Vision 2030.

Dr. Diana Galeeva

As a hub of skills and expertise in education and finance, the UK might leverage these strengths to emerge as ��������Ƶ’s leading partner in realizing Vision 2030. At the same time, the Kingdom is aiming to quadruple the size of its mining, renewables and logistics sectors, which could be other areas of cooperation. Challenges also exist, such as rising political opposition to the sale of UK arms to ��������Ƶ for use in Yemen.

To sum up, any effort to build closer relations with the rest of the world as part of a Global Britain strategy would offer an opportunity for close cooperation between the GCC and the UK. This should encourage us to discuss not only the uncertainty and confusion of Brexit, but also the doors that might be opened for the post-Brexit UK and the GCC states to enjoy even closer partnerships. 

• Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to St. Antony’s College, Oxford. She completed her bachelor's degree at Kazan Federal University and holds an MA from Exeter University and Ph.D. from Durham University. Her research interests include concepts of power, the GCC's foreign policies and relations between Russia and the GCC states. She was a co-director of the workshop “Post-Brexit Britain, Europe and policy toward Iran and the GCC states: Potential challenges and the possibility of cooperation” at the Gulf Research Meeting (University of Cambridge, 2019). She can be contacted on [email protected]. Twitter: @diana_galeeva