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DUBAI: The Middle East will remain the world’s largest oil exporting region but its share in the liquified natural gas market will see a dip by 2040, a report from British energy company BP said.
The publication, which outlined BP’s long-term global energy supply and demand outlook, predicted that the Middle East would remain “the largest oil producer and the second largest gas producer, accounting for over 34 percent of global liquids production and 20 percent of gas production by 2040.”
The study predicted that Middle East oil production would reach 37 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040 - over one-third of the global liquids supply - from 32 million bpd, while gas output would be at 98 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) from 62 Bcf/d. The oil supply includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, natural gas liquids, liquid fuels derived from coal and gas, and refinery gains, but excludes biofuels, the report noted.
“The natural gas production increases by 60 percent [would be] mostly led by Iran, Qatar and ��������Ƶ,” the report said.
On the consumption side, BP said that the region’s energy demand would increase by 54 percent by 2040, with natural gas representing almost two-thirds of that growth as oil and coal both lose share to gas and non-fossil fuels. Non-fossil fuels would make up 8 percent of aggregate energy supply by 2040, from only about percent today thanks to growth in solar, wind and nuclear sources.
“Energy intensity is projected to fall by 21 percent by 2040, but the region is still almost twice as energy intensive as the world’s average. Energy consumption per capita [will] rise to reach OECD levels by 2040,” the report said