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JEDDAH: OPEC will release its annual World Oil Outlook on Nov. 7. Here is an early glance into the report from comments made by OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo in Kuwait this week.
The medium-term outlook for oil demand is set for a significant increase to 2022 with healthy average annual expansion.
Oil demand is set to increase by 6.9 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2016 and 2022, rising to 102.3 million bpd. The average annual increase of demand during the period is forecast at almost 1.2 million bpd.
Long-term global oil demand growth, in turn, is forecast to decelerate steadily through 2040.
Oil demand over the long term is set to increase by a modest rate of 300,000 bpd every year between 2035 and 2040, compared to an annual average of 1.3 million bpd over the period 2016-2020.
In the global energy mix, OPEC sees fossil fuels retaining a dominant role, albeit with a declining overall share through 2040.
The share of the energy mix held by fossil fuels is expected to decline below 80 percent by the year 2020, and it will drop further to under 78 percent by 2030. The share of fossil fuel is set to reach 75.4 percent of the global energy mix by 2040.
OPEC sees oil as the largest contributing fuel, followed by natural gas, whose share in the energy mix will increase
by 2040.
The share of natural gas in the global energy mix is likely to increase by 3.6 percent by 2040 from its 2016 level. Gas production is expected to reach a level of 93 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2040.
Other renewables — wind, solar, geothermal and photovoltaic — are projected to be the fastest-growing energy type by far, with their collective share expected to increase by 2040. However, their share of the total energy mix will remain modest given a low starting base.
Renewables are set to increase by 6.8 percent per year on average between 2015 and 2040, but their share of the world’s total energy mix is expected to stay below 5.5 percent by 2040.