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ANKARA: Turkey’s military deployment along its southern border suggests an imminent operation in Syria’s Idlib province alongside the Ankara-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA).
During talks last week in the Kazakh capital Astana, Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to establish “de-escalation zones” in various parts of Syria for six months, including rebel-held Idlib, where Ankara will send troops to monitor implementation of the deal.
Turkey’s pro-government newspaper Yeni Safak on Friday reported that the army has ordered FSA-linked groups to prepare for an operation in Idlib.
Under the plan, 25,000 Turkish troops will reportedly be accompanied by about 5,000 FSA fighters, although military experts say the number of Turkish troops is exaggerated.
Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a rebel alliance that controls much of Idlib and is dominated by former Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham, has said it does not recognize the Astana agreement and would resist any operation in the province.
Serhat Erkmen, a Middle East expert at the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute, said he expects a Turkish military operation in Idlib very soon.
“Initially, elements linked to the FSA will play a greater role. Whether they can accomplish the expected result depends on the intensity of the fighting,” Erkmen told Arab News.
“The strategy Turkey adopts for this operation will determine whether HTS resists. If HTS feels the main objective is to clear it and its supporters from Idlib instead of de-escalating conflict between the regime and opposition forces, a fierce battle is inevitable,” he said.
“I don’t expect a serious flow of militants into Turkey following this operation, because Ankara has already taken tight security measures along the border.”
Turkey has almost finished a 700-km-long wall along its border with Syria, backed by unmanned drones, sophisticated surveillance cameras, fiber optic sensors and watchtowers.
Mete Sohtaoglu, an expert on Middle East and global jihadist movements, said Ankara has given FSA fighters Special Forces and commando training, as well as weapons and military vehicles.
“FSA units, which will be formed by local fighters, will act as spearhead forces,” he told Arab News.
“They’ll stand at checkpoints and crossroads in Idlib to provide security for the Turkish military,” Sohtaoglu added.
“During the first stage, 500-600 Turkish troops and commando units may be expected to enter Idlib,” he said.
“Since July, the Turkish army has been carrying out feasibility studies there. There are three military camps in Idlib probably to deploy Turkish troops, and the FSA will be supported from there if necessary,” Sohtaoglu added. “The only disadvantage is that frequent assassinations and bombings occur in the region.”
He said armed groups are likely to negotiate with Ankara because no one wants to fight the Turkish army.
“If Turkey prefers a military installation in Idlib, HTS will move to other regions to fight regime or Kurdish forces, or it will disband for the sake of Idlib’s residents,” he added.
But other experts said if HTS decides to fight Turkish troops, the conflict will likely be long and intense.
Ankara conducted Operation Euphrates Shield between August 2016 and March 2017 to expel Daesh from the border and prevent Syrian Kurdish forces from establishing a territorial belt.
During that operation, Turkey lost 67 soldiers and the FSA 600 fighters, mainly due to Daesh suicide attacks.